Complete FSTR Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
FSTR DCF Analysis
FSTR (L.B. Foster Company) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $497.5M | $543.7M | $530.8M | $538.9M | $546.3M | $553.1M | $559.3M | $564.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 9.3% | -2.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| EBIT | $2.4M | $10.1M | $20.5M | $26.9M | $27.3M | $27.7M | $28.0M | $28.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | 0.5% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 15.9% |
| NOPAT | $1.8M | $10.1M | $20.5M | $24.3M | $24.2M | $24.1M | $23.9M | $23.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 0.4% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| Capex | $7.6M | $4.9M | $9.8M | $7.6M | $7.3M | $7.0M | $6.7M | $6.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Depreciation | $14.8M | $15.3M | $14.1M | $15.1M | $15.4M | $15.5M | $15.7M | $15.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Change in NWC | $9.3M | $-30.6M | $1.3M | $-5.2M | $-4.2M | $-3.4M | $-2.8M | $-2.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 1.9% | -5.6% | 0.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-420.0K | $51.0M | $23.5M | $37.0M | $36.5M | $36.0M | $35.7M | $35.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 12252.4% | -53.9% | 57.4% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -0.1% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.793 | 0.735 | 0.680 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $34.3M | $31.3M | $28.6M | $26.2M | $24.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $34.3M | $65.6M | $94.1M | $120.3M | $144.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 9.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.26% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.96 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.4% |
| Total Debt | $61.6M |
| Market Cap | $232.0M |
| Total Capital | $293.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 21.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 79.0% |
| WACC | 8.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $35.4M |
| Terminal Value | $657.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $447.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $144.4M |
| Net Debt | $59.2M |
| Equity Value | $532.3M |
| Shares Outstanding | 11.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $48 |
| Current Share Price | $22 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +119.3% |
Valuation Summary
$48.18
Implied Price
$21.97
Current Price
+119.3%
Upside/Downside
8.0%
WACC
FSTR Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$36.14
+64.5%
Peer Median: 10.5x
EV/EBITDA
$27.58
+25.5%
Peer Median: 10.8x
P/S Ratio
$22.78
+3.7%
Peer Median: 0.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for FSTR's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | FSTR Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.4x | 10.5x | 11.4x | -39.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.8x | 10.8x | 10.2x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 0.5x | 1.5x | -3.6% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.32B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 52.5x | |
| $0.25B | 8.1x | 7.9x | 0.2x | |
| $0.27B | 10.5x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.21B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.23B | 6.4x | 10.8x | 0.5x | |
| $0.14B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.14B | 16.4x | 13.7x | 3.6x | |
| $88.95B | 26.8x | 18.5x | 4.5x |
FSTR Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $3.45 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $16.14 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$35.41
Intrinsic Value
$21.97
Current Price
+61.2%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 3.45 = 77.70
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
77.70 × 16.14 = 1254.15
Step 3: Take square root
√1254.15 = 35.41
Graham Number Result:
$35.41
FSTR Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
3.45 × (8.5 + 2 × 127.6%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$3.45
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y127.6%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$910.87
Intrinsic Value
$21.97
Current Price
+4046.0%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 127.6%
FSTR Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$3.45
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y127.6%
3-year earnings growth
127.6%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$3.45 × 127.6% = $440.76
$440.76
Fair Value
$21.97
Current Price
+1906.2%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
6.4x
Current P/E
127.6%
Growth Rate
0.05
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
FSTR Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$49.19
EPV per Share
$21.97
Current Price
+123.9%
Upside/Downside
7.9%
WACC: 7.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.5B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $49.19 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 79.7% |
| Debt Weight | 20.3% |
| WACC | 7.9% |