Complete FLYE Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
FLYE DCF Analysis
FLYE (Fly-E Group, Inc. Common Stock) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.2M | $21.8M | $32.2M | $40.3M | $50.3M | $62.9M | $78.6M | $98.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 26.7% | 47.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $627.7K | $2.3M | $3.3M | $3.3M | $4.1M | $5.2M | $6.6M | $8.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | 3.7% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% |
| Tax Rate % | 29.6% | 37.4% | 38.4% | 35.1% | 34.1% | 33.1% | 32.1% | 31.1% |
| NOPAT | $442.2K | $1.4M | $2.0M | $2.1M | $2.7M | $3.5M | $4.5M | $5.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 2.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% |
| Capex | $323.5K | $442.9K | $3.0M | $1.8M | $2.1M | $2.5M | $3.0M | $3.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.9% | 2.0% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| Depreciation | $1.0M | $2.1M | $2.6M | $3.1M | $3.9M | $4.9M | $6.1M | $7.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.8% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Change in NWC | $0 | $1.8M | $-252.8K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.0% | 8.3% | -0.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.8M | $2.4M | $3.5M | $4.8M | $6.6M | $8.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 10.4% | 44.6% | 36.0% | 43.0% | 38.8% | 36.0% | 34.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 1.045 | 1.092 | 1.142 | 1.193 | 1.247 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $2.5M | $3.8M | $5.5M | $7.8M | $11.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $2.5M | $6.4M | $11.9M | $19.7M | $30.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 35.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | -4.66 |
| Cost of Equity | -15.8% |
| Total Debt | $18.5M |
| Market Cap | $14.7M |
| Total Capital | $33.2M |
| Debt Weighting | 55.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 44.3% |
| WACC | -4.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $8.8M |
| Terminal Value | $-132.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $-165.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $30.7M |
| Net Debt | $17.1M |
| Equity Value | $-151.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 24.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $-6 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -1146.0% |
Valuation Summary
$-6.25
Implied Price
$0.60
Current Price
-1146.0%
Upside/Downside
-4.3%
WACC
FLYE Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$1.29
+116.2%
Peer Median: 14.3x
P/S Ratio
$1.12
+87.7%
Peer Median: 1.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for FLYE's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | FLYE Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -11.1x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.3x | 14.3x | 14.3x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 1.0x | 2.2x | -46.7% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 144.8x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.6x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 14.3x | 0.5x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.6x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.5x | |
| $977.17B | 166.9x | 69.8x | 10.2x |