Complete ECDA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
ECDA DCF Analysis
ECDA (ECD Automotive Design, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.0M | $15.1M | $25.2M | $31.5M | $39.3M | $49.2M | $61.4M | $76.8M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 0.9% | 66.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-342.2K | $-1.6M | $-4.5M | $1.6M | $2.0M | $2.5M | $3.1M | $3.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | -2.3% | -10.8% | -18.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 41.6% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 22.9% | 23.1% | 23.3% | 23.5% | 23.7% |
| NOPAT | $-200.0K | $-1.2M | $-3.4M | $1.2M | $1.5M | $1.9M | $2.3M | $2.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -1.3% | -8.1% | -13.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $539.7K | $554.8K | $0 | $613.9K | $729.0K | $865.7K | $1.0M | $1.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.6% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| Depreciation | $88.7K | $478.9K | $485.1K | $596.2K | $745.3K | $931.6K | $1.2M | $1.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Change in NWC | $-703.4K | $2.4M | $-5.0M | $-738.0K | $-738.0K | $-738.0K | $-738.0K | $-738.0K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -4.7% | 16.0% | -20.0% | -2.3% | -1.9% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $52.4K | $-3.7M | $2.1M | $1.9M | $2.3M | $2.7M | $3.2M | $3.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -7215.8% | 156.6% | -8.4% | 17.2% | 18.6% | 19.9% | 21.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 0.3% | -24.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.955 | 0.911 | 0.870 | 0.831 | 0.793 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.8M | $2.1M | $2.3M | $2.7M | $3.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.8M | $3.9M | $6.3M | $8.9M | $12.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.5% |
| Tax Rate | 22.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | -0.32 |
| Cost of Equity | 3.1% |
| Total Debt | $17.8M |
| Market Cap | $10.9M |
| Total Capital | $28.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 62.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 37.9% |
| WACC | 4.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $3.9M |
| Terminal Value | $178.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $141.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $12.0M |
| Net Debt | $16.3M |
| Equity Value | $137.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 33.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $4 |
| Current Share Price | $0 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +1228.7% |
Valuation Summary
$4.09
Implied Price
$0.31
Current Price
+1228.7%
Upside/Downside
4.7%
WACC
ECDA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 13.9x
P/S Ratio
$0.51
+66.8%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ECDA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ECDA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.6x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 13.9x | 13.9x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 0.9x | 2.4x | -40.0% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.9x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 13.9x | 0.5x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.4x | |
| $0.00B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.9x | |
| $0.00B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.6x | |
| $1119.54B | 191.2x | 80.0x | 11.7x |