Complete BTAI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
BTAI DCF Analysis
BTAI (BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $375.0K | $1.4M | $2.3M | $2.8M | $3.5M | $4.4M | $5.5M | $6.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 268.0% | 64.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-159.6M | $-171.8M | $-67.2M | $141.6K | $177.0K | $221.3K | $276.6K | $345.8K |
| EBIT Margin % | -42572.0% | -12448.0% | -2967.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-119.7M | $-128.8M | $-50.4M | $106.2K | $132.8K | $166.0K | $207.5K | $259.3K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -31929.0% | -9336.0% | -2225.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $139.0K | $20.0K | $0 | $28.3K | $35.4K | $44.3K | $55.3K | $69.2K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 37.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $327.0K | $318.0K | $309.0K | $1.2M | $1.5M | $1.8M | $2.3M | $2.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 87.2% | 23.0% | 13.6% | 41.3% | 41.3% | 41.3% | 41.3% | 41.3% |
| Change in NWC | $-46.3M | $-125.1M | $-29.7M | $28.3K | $35.4K | $44.3K | $55.3K | $69.2K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -12354.9% | -9064.8% | -1311.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-73.2M | $-3.4M | $-20.4M | $1.2M | $1.5M | $1.9M | $2.4M | $3.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 95.3% | -492.5% | 106.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -19523.9% | -249.6% | -900.7% | 43.0% | 43.0% | 43.0% | 43.0% | 43.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.953 | 0.908 | 0.865 | 0.824 | 0.785 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.6M | $2.0M | $2.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.2M | $2.5M | $4.2M | $6.2M | $8.5M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | -0.13 |
| Cost of Equity | 3.7% |
| Total Debt | $102.9M |
| Market Cap | $11.3M |
| Total Capital | $114.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 90.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 9.9% |
| WACC | 5.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $3.0M |
| Terminal Value | $124.2M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $97.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $8.5M |
| Net Debt | $73.1M |
| Equity Value | $32.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $13 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +593.7% |
Valuation Summary
$12.97
Implied Price
$1.87
Current Price
+593.7%
Upside/Downside
5.0%
WACC
BTAI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$1.87
+0.0%
Peer Median: 6.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for BTAI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | BTAI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.2x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 6.1x | 6.1x | 6.0x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 12.4x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.3x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.1x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x |