Complete CARM Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
CARM DCF Analysis
CARM (Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.8M | $14.9M | $19.6M | $24.5M | $30.7M | $37.9M | $46.0M | $54.8M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 51.7% | 31.6% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 23.6% | 21.3% | 19.1% |
| EBIT | $-56.2M | $-88.7M | $-62.2M | $1.2M | $1.5M | $1.9M | $2.3M | $2.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | -571.1% | -594.8% | -316.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-42.1M | $-66.5M | $-46.6M | $920.3K | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.7M | $2.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -428.3% | -446.1% | -237.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $4.7M | $1.1M | $123.0K | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.6M | $1.9M | $2.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 47.4% | 7.6% | 0.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| Depreciation | $6.1M | $2.8M | $3.4M | $8.0M | $10.0M | $12.4M | $15.0M | $17.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 61.9% | 19.0% | 17.1% | 32.7% | 32.7% | 32.7% | 32.7% | 32.7% |
| Change in NWC | $12.8M | $29.6M | $-56.8M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 130.4% | 198.7% | -289.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-53.5M | $-94.5M | $13.4M | $7.8M | $9.8M | $12.2M | $14.9M | $17.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -76.5% | 114.2% | -42.0% | 25.9% | 24.5% | 22.1% | 19.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -544.2% | -633.3% | 68.2% | 31.6% | 31.9% | 32.1% | 32.3% | 32.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.870 | 0.757 | 0.659 | 0.573 | 0.499 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $6.8M | $7.4M | $8.0M | $8.5M | $8.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $6.8M | $14.2M | $22.2M | $30.7M | $39.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.79 |
| Cost of Equity | 16.4% |
| Total Debt | $2.5M |
| Market Cap | $17.0M |
| Total Capital | $19.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 12.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 87.3% |
| WACC | 14.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $17.8M |
| Terminal Value | $146.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $73.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $39.6M |
| Net Debt | $-15.4M |
| Equity Value | $128.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 41.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $3 |
| Current Share Price | $0 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +658.2% |
Valuation Summary
$3.09
Implied Price
$0.41
Current Price
+658.2%
Upside/Downside
14.9%
WACC
CARM Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$0.42
+3.9%
Peer Median: 1.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CARM's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CARM Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.3x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.0x | 1.1x | 2.1x | -3.7% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.1x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.1x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 687.5x |