Complete CYCN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
CYCN DCF Analysis
CYCN (Cyclerion Therapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $297.0K | $0 | $2.0M | $1.8M | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.3M | $1.2M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -100.0% | Infinity% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $-44.4M | $-9.6M | $-3.6M | $90.0K | $81.0K | $72.9K | $65.6K | $59.0K |
| EBIT Margin % | -14940.1% | 0.0% | -181.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-33.3M | $-7.2M | $-2.7M | $67.5K | $60.8K | $54.7K | $49.2K | $44.3K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -11205.1% | -Infinity% | -136.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $0 | $0 | $0 | $18.0K | $16.2K | $14.6K | $13.1K | $11.8K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.0% | NaN% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $65.0K | $0 | $0 | $NaN | $NaN | $NaN | $NaN | $NaN |
| D&A / Revenue % | 21.9% | NaN% | 0.0% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% |
| Change in NWC | $-37.2M | $-1.3M | $-2.4M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -12518.2% | -Infinity% | -121.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $4.0M | $-6.0M | $-283.0K | $NaN | $NaN | $NaN | $NaN | $NaN |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -250.8% | 95.3% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 1335.0% | -Infinity% | -14.1% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.901 | 0.812 | 0.731 | 0.659 | 0.593 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $NaN | $NaN | $NaN | $NaN | $NaN |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $NaN | $NaN | $NaN | $NaN | $NaN |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.55 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.0% |
| Total Debt | $0 |
| Market Cap | $9.0M |
| Total Capital | $9.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 100.0% |
| WACC | 11.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $NaN |
| Terminal Value | $NaN |
| PV of Terminal Value | $NaN |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $NaN |
| Net Debt | $-3.2M |
| Equity Value | $NaN |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $NaN |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | NaN% |
Valuation Summary
$NaN
Implied Price
$2.80
Current Price
NaN%
Upside/Downside
11.0%
WACC
CYCN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-11.33
-504.3%
Peer Median: 9.8x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$3.96
+41.4%
Peer Median: 6.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CYCN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CYCN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -2.4x | 9.8x | 9.8x | -124.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.3x | 6.1x | 5.8x | -29.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 59.9x | |
| $0.01B | 9.8x | -1.4x | 309.8x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.2x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 12.4x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.3x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.1x |