Complete ALGS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
ALGS DCF Analysis
ALGS (Aligos Therapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.9M | $15.5M | $3.9M | $4.1M | $4.2M | $4.3M | $4.4M | $4.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 11.7% | -74.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% |
| EBIT | $-97.6M | $-88.1M | $-89.2M | $203.4K | $209.0K | $214.3K | $219.1K | $223.6K |
| EBIT Margin % | -701.7% | -567.5% | -2259.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-73.2M | $-66.1M | $-66.9M | $152.5K | $156.8K | $160.7K | $164.3K | $167.7K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -526.2% | -425.6% | -1694.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $943.0K | $19.0K | $130.0K | $138.3K | $135.0K | $131.5K | $127.7K | $123.8K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 6.8% | 0.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Depreciation | $3.7M | $3.1M | $2.6M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 26.4% | 19.8% | 66.5% | 37.6% | 37.6% | 37.6% | 37.6% | 37.6% |
| Change in NWC | $-65.1M | $16.8M | $-76.8M | $40.7K | $41.8K | $42.9K | $43.8K | $44.7K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -467.8% | 107.9% | -1946.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-5.4M | $-79.8M | $12.4M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -1377.4% | 115.5% | -87.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -38.8% | -513.9% | 314.3% | 36.9% | 37.1% | 37.2% | 37.4% | 37.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.877 | 0.769 | 0.675 | 0.592 | 0.519 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $970.0K | $871.5K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.3M | $2.5M | $3.6M | $4.6M | $5.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.69 |
| Cost of Equity | 16.0% |
| Total Debt | $8.4M |
| Market Cap | $36.7M |
| Total Capital | $45.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 18.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 81.4% |
| WACC | 14.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.7M |
| Terminal Value | $15.0M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $7.8M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $5.4M |
| Net Debt | $-28.6M |
| Equity Value | $41.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 6.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $7 |
| Current Share Price | $6 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +11.3% |
Valuation Summary
$6.68
Implied Price
$6.00
Current Price
+11.3%
Upside/Downside
14.0%
WACC
ALGS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$6.00
+0.0%
Peer Median: 11.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ALGS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ALGS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 11.2x | 11.2x | 7.9x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.15B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.2x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1244.2x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 11.2x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.2x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 16.0x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 365.9x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x |