Complete FGEN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
FGEN DCF Analysis
FGEN (FibroGen, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $140.7M | $147.8M | $29.6M | $26.7M | $24.0M | $21.6M | $19.4M | $17.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 5.0% | -80.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $-301.0M | $-281.8M | $-150.4M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $971.7K | $874.5K |
| EBIT Margin % | -213.9% | -190.7% | -507.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-225.8M | $-211.4M | $-112.8M | $999.7K | $899.7K | $809.8K | $728.8K | $655.9K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -160.4% | -143.1% | -380.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $38.7M | $2.5M | $266.0K | $1.2M | $1.0M | $862.2K | $737.2K | $630.3K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 27.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| Depreciation | $10.6M | $9.9M | $2.7M | $2.1M | $1.9M | $1.7M | $1.5M | $1.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Change in NWC | $-29.3M | $-105.4M | $-50.7M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -20.8% | -71.3% | -171.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-224.6M | $-98.6M | $-59.7M | $1.9M | $1.8M | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 56.1% | 39.4% | 103.2% | -7.2% | -7.4% | -7.6% | -7.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -159.6% | -66.7% | -201.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.943 | 0.890 | 0.839 | 0.792 | 0.747 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.8M | $1.6M | $1.4M | $1.2M | $1.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.8M | $3.4M | $4.7M | $5.9M | $6.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.82 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.9% |
| Total Debt | $73.1M |
| Market Cap | $31.4M |
| Total Capital | $104.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 69.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 30.1% |
| WACC | 6.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.4M |
| Terminal Value | $40.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $30.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $6.9M |
| Net Debt | $22.6M |
| Equity Value | $14.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 100.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $0 |
| Current Share Price | $0 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -53.0% |
Valuation Summary
$0.15
Implied Price
$0.31
Current Price
-53.0%
Upside/Downside
6.0%
WACC
FGEN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$18.38
+5812.3%
Peer Median: 11.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for FGEN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | FGEN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.2x | 11.9x | 9.3x | -98.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1244.2x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 11.9x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.2x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 15.7x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 355.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x |