Complete XERS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
XERS DCF Analysis
XERS (Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $110.2M | $163.9M | $203.1M | $253.8M | $317.3M | $396.6M | $495.8M | $619.7M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 48.7% | 23.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-81.9M | $-44.0M | $-33.6M | $12.7M | $15.9M | $19.8M | $24.8M | $31.0M |
| EBIT Margin % | -74.3% | -26.8% | -16.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-61.5M | $-33.0M | $-25.2M | $9.5M | $11.9M | $14.9M | $18.6M | $23.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -55.7% | -20.1% | -12.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $524.0K | $2.3M | $868.0K | $2.8M | $3.3M | $4.0M | $5.0M | $6.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $12.7M | $13.2M | $12.6M | $21.8M | $27.2M | $34.0M | $42.5M | $53.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 11.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Change in NWC | $0 | $-52.1M | $6.1M | $2.6M | $2.6M | $2.6M | $2.6M | $2.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.0% | -31.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-49.3M | $30.0M | $-19.6M | $25.9M | $33.2M | $42.4M | $53.6M | $67.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 160.9% | -165.4% | 232.1% | 28.1% | 27.5% | 26.5% | 26.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -44.7% | 18.3% | -9.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.930 | 0.866 | 0.805 | 0.749 | 0.697 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $24.1M | $28.8M | $34.1M | $40.2M | $47.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $24.1M | $52.9M | $87.0M | $127.2M | $174.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.91 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.3% |
| Total Debt | $271.4M |
| Market Cap | $733.5M |
| Total Capital | $1.0B |
| Debt Weighting | 27.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 73.0% |
| WACC | 7.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $67.6M |
| Terminal Value | $1.4B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $970.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $174.3M |
| Net Debt | $199.8M |
| Equity Value | $944.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 146.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $6 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +40.5% |
Valuation Summary
$6.44
Implied Price
$4.58
Current Price
+40.5%
Upside/Downside
7.5%
WACC
XERS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-16.35
-456.9%
Peer Median: 55.3x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 45.6x
P/S Ratio
$4.58
+0.0%
Peer Median: 3.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for XERS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | XERS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -15.5x | 55.3x | 46.8x | -128.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 45.6x | 25.4x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 3.3x | 3.3x | 6.7x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.97B | 22.6x | 5.3x | 1.5x | |
| $0.93B | 55.3x | 50.3x | 11.3x | |
| $0.89B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $1.00B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.73B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.3x | |
| $0.85B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 77.4x | |
| $0.65B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.4x | |
| $0.72B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $729.91B | 62.5x | 45.6x | 14.9x |