Complete COLL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
COLL DCF Analysis
COLL (Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $463.9M | $566.8M | $631.4M | $780.8M | $947.1M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 22.2% | 11.4% | 23.7% | 21.3% | 19.2% | 17.2% | 15.5% |
| EBIT | $-104.6M | $167.0M | $169.9M | $88.0M | $107.7M | $129.5M | $153.2M | $178.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | -22.5% | 29.5% | 26.9% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.7% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 36.4% | 29.8% | 23.8% | 24.0% | 24.1% | 24.2% | 24.3% |
| NOPAT | $-78.4M | $106.2M | $119.3M | $67.0M | $81.9M | $98.3M | $116.1M | $135.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -16.9% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Capex | $1.6M | $461.0K | $1.7M | $7.8M | $9.5M | $11.3M | $13.2M | $15.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $138.9M | $149.3M | $169.2M | $216.2M | $262.3M | $312.5M | $366.4M | $423.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 29.9% | 26.3% | 26.8% | 27.7% | 27.7% | 27.7% | 27.7% | 27.7% |
| Change in NWC | $64.7M | $-70.2M | $-106.9M | $-2.1M | $-2.1M | $-2.0M | $-1.9M | $-1.7M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 14.0% | -12.4% | -16.9% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-5.8M | $325.1M | $393.7M | $277.6M | $336.8M | $401.5M | $471.1M | $544.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 5664.0% | 21.1% | -29.5% | 21.3% | 19.2% | 17.3% | 15.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -1.3% | 57.4% | 62.3% | 35.6% | 35.6% | 35.6% | 35.6% | 35.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.941 | 0.885 | 0.833 | 0.784 | 0.737 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $261.2M | $298.1M | $334.5M | $369.2M | $401.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $261.2M | $559.3M | $893.8M | $1.3B | $1.7B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 23.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.65 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.2% |
| Total Debt | $859.3M |
| Market Cap | $969.3M |
| Total Capital | $1.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 47.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 53.0% |
| WACC | 6.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $544.8M |
| Terminal Value | $14.8B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $10.9B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.7B |
| Net Debt | $788.7M |
| Equity Value | $11.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 40.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $291 |
| Current Share Price | $30 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +865.0% |
Valuation Summary
$291.01
Implied Price
$30.16
Current Price
+865.0%
Upside/Downside
6.3%
WACC
COLL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$73.89
+145.0%
Peer Median: 55.3x
EV/EBITDA
$114.76
+280.5%
Peer Median: 11.1x
P/S Ratio
$105.13
+248.6%
Peer Median: 5.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for COLL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | COLL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.6x | 55.3x | 42.8x | -59.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3x | 11.1x | 20.7x | -52.3% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.5x | 5.1x | 6.7x | -71.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.42B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 23.8x | |
| $0.97B | 30.8x | 11.1x | 0.8x | |
| $1.08B | 0.0x | 67.8x | 5.1x | |
| $0.97B | 22.6x | 5.3x | 1.5x | |
| $0.93B | 55.3x | 50.3x | 11.3x | |
| $0.89B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $1.00B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $729.91B | 62.5x | 45.6x | 14.9x |
COLL Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.34 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $5.66 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$13.05
Intrinsic Value
$30.16
Current Price
-56.7%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.34 = 30.07
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
30.07 × 5.66 = 170.25
Step 3: Take square root
√170.25 = 13.05
Graham Number Result:
$13.05
COLL Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.34 × (8.5 + 2 × 1.4%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.34
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y1.4%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$15.22
Intrinsic Value
$30.16
Current Price
-49.5%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 1.4%
COLL Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.34
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y1.4%
3-year earnings growth
1.4%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.34 × 1.4% = $1.93
$1.93
Fair Value
$30.16
Current Price
-93.6%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
22.6x
Current P/E
1.4%
Growth Rate
15.64
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
COLL Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$25.10
EPV per Share
$30.16
Current Price
-16.8%
Upside/Downside
6.8%
WACC: 6.8% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 6.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $1.0B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $1.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $25.10 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 58.7% |
| Debt Weight | 41.3% |
| WACC | 6.8% |