Complete SST Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SST DCF Analysis
SST (System1, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $826.7M | $402.0M | $343.9M | $309.5M | $278.6M | $250.7M | $227.5M | $208.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -51.4% | -14.4% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -9.3% | -8.3% |
| EBIT | $50.8M | $-86.0M | $-88.6M | $15.5M | $13.9M | $12.5M | $11.4M | $10.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | 6.1% | -21.4% | -25.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 2.8% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 13.6% | 14.7% | 15.9% | 17.0% | 18.1% |
| NOPAT | $49.4M | $-64.5M | $-66.5M | $13.4M | $11.9M | $10.5M | $9.4M | $8.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 6.0% | -16.0% | -19.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Capex | $10.4M | $8.0M | $31.0K | $3.4M | $2.9M | $2.5M | $2.3M | $2.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.3% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $70.5M | $105.2M | $80.1M | $59.8M | $53.8M | $48.5M | $44.0M | $40.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 8.5% | 26.2% | 23.3% | 19.3% | 19.3% | 19.3% | 19.3% | 19.3% |
| Change in NWC | $-70.9M | $199.4M | $-86.2M | $-14.2M | $-10.2M | $-7.3M | $-5.3M | $-3.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -8.6% | 49.6% | -25.1% | -4.6% | -3.7% | -2.9% | -2.3% | -1.9% |
| Unlevered FCF | $180.4M | $-166.6M | $99.8M | $84.0M | $73.0M | $63.9M | $56.5M | $50.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -192.4% | 159.9% | -15.9% | -13.0% | -12.6% | -11.6% | -10.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 21.8% | -41.4% | 29.0% | 27.1% | 26.2% | 25.5% | 24.8% | 24.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.937 | 0.877 | 0.822 | 0.770 | 0.721 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $78.7M | $64.1M | $52.5M | $43.5M | $36.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $78.7M | $142.7M | $195.2M | $238.7M | $275.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 13.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.20 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.6% |
| Total Debt | $275.0M |
| Market Cap | $35.6M |
| Total Capital | $310.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 88.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 11.5% |
| WACC | 6.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $50.7M |
| Terminal Value | $1.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $878.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $275.2M |
| Net Debt | $211.4M |
| Equity Value | $942.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 69.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $14 |
| Current Share Price | $0 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +3470.7% |
Valuation Summary
$13.54
Implied Price
$0.38
Current Price
+3470.7%
Upside/Downside
6.8%
WACC
SST Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 5 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-20.35
-5464.7%
Peer Median: 18.9x
EV/EBITDA
$2.63
+593.6%
Peer Median: 33.4x
P/S Ratio
$1.92
+406.6%
Peer Median: 0.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SST's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SST Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.4x | 18.9x | 18.9x | -101.9% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.4x | 33.4x | 23.7x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.1x | 0.5x | 1.6x | -80.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.4x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 33.4x | 0.1x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.4x | |
| $2081.61B | 18.9x | 13.9x | 5.8x |