Complete SERV Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SERV DCF Analysis
SERV (Serve Robotics Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $107.8K | $207.5K | $1.8M | $2.3M | $2.8M | $3.5M | $4.4M | $5.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 92.5% | 773.3% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-21.0M | $-20.7M | $-38.3M | $113.3K | $141.6K | $177.0K | $221.3K | $276.6K |
| EBIT Margin % | -19433.5% | -9987.0% | -2112.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-15.7M | $-15.5M | $-28.7M | $85.0K | $106.2K | $132.8K | $165.9K | $207.4K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -14575.2% | -7490.3% | -1584.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $3.6M | $4.9K | $10.3M | $53.6K | $63.7K | $75.6K | $89.8K | $106.7K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3380.6% | 2.4% | 565.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| Depreciation | $388.1K | $1.9M | $309.7K | $9.6M | $12.0M | $15.0M | $18.8M | $23.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 360.0% | 898.1% | 17.1% | 425.1% | 425.1% | 425.1% | 425.1% | 425.1% |
| Change in NWC | $-8.6M | $-4.3M | $123.2M | $22.7K | $28.3K | $35.4K | $44.3K | $55.3K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -7941.2% | -2080.6% | 6798.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-10.4M | $-9.4M | $-161.9M | $9.6M | $12.1M | $15.1M | $18.8M | $23.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 10.0% | -1627.9% | 106.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -9654.6% | -4514.0% | -8931.4% | 425.4% | 425.6% | 425.7% | 425.8% | 425.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.798 | 0.637 | 0.508 | 0.406 | 0.324 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $7.7M | $7.7M | $7.7M | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $7.7M | $15.4M | $23.0M | $30.7M | $38.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 4.84 |
| Cost of Equity | 25.4% |
| Total Debt | $2.3M |
| Market Cap | $679.2M |
| Total Capital | $681.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.7% |
| WACC | 25.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $23.6M |
| Terminal Value | $105.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $34.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $38.3M |
| Net Debt | $-120.9M |
| Equity Value | $193.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 36.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $12 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -55.6% |
Valuation Summary
$5.28
Implied Price
$11.89
Current Price
-55.6%
Upside/Downside
25.3%
WACC
SERV Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-20.83
-275.2%
Peer Median: 27.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 13.8x
P/S Ratio
$0.02
-99.8%
Peer Median: 1.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SERV's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SERV Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -15.4x | 27.0x | 32.8x | -157.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 13.8x | 13.8x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 520.0x | 1.0x | 2.3x | 51959.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.91B | 74.1x | 19.7x | 0.9x | |
| $0.97B | 45.4x | 16.0x | 0.7x | |
| $0.72B | 26.4x | 13.8x | 1.0x | |
| $0.92B | 0.0x | 393.4x | 3.6x | |
| $0.78B | 32.4x | 9.0x | 2.1x | |
| $0.68B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 520.0x | |
| $0.65B | 5.5x | 9.9x | 0.2x | |
| $0.50B | 0.0x | 9.9x | 0.3x | |
| $0.44B | 18.5x | 12.7x | 3.0x | |
| $219.75B | 27.0x | 19.5x | 8.5x |