Complete BH-A Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
BH-A DCF Analysis
BH-A (Biglari Holdings Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $368.2M | $365.3M | $362.1M | $354.8M | $348.3M | $342.6M | $337.5M | $333.0M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -0.8% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.8% | -1.6% | -1.5% | -1.3% |
| EBIT | $-30.2M | $39.4M | $23.1M | $17.7M | $17.4M | $17.1M | $16.9M | $16.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | -8.2% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 14.4% | 25.0% | 21.1% | 21.5% | 21.9% | 22.3% | 22.6% |
| NOPAT | $-22.7M | $33.7M | $17.3M | $14.0M | $13.7M | $13.4M | $13.1M | $12.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -6.2% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $29.7M | $23.4M | $30.6M | $32.2M | $30.0M | $28.0M | $26.2M | $24.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 8.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% |
| Depreciation | $36.4M | $39.0M | $39.8M | $37.3M | $36.7M | $36.0M | $35.5M | $35.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 9.9% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-5.4M | $25.7M | $-18.2M | $488.8K | $383.9K | $302.0K | $238.1K | $187.9K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -1.5% | 7.0% | -5.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-10.6M | $23.6M | $44.7M | $18.7M | $19.9M | $21.1M | $22.2M | $23.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 323.5% | 89.5% | -58.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -2.9% | 6.5% | 12.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.925 | 0.855 | 0.790 | 0.731 | 0.676 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $17.3M | $17.0M | $16.7M | $16.2M | $15.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $17.3M | $34.3M | $51.0M | $67.2M | $82.8M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 21.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.97 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.6% |
| Total Debt | $150.2M |
| Market Cap | $783.9M |
| Total Capital | $934.1M |
| Debt Weighting | 16.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 83.9% |
| WACC | 8.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $23.1M |
| Terminal Value | $419.6M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $283.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $82.8M |
| Net Debt | $119.5M |
| Equity Value | $246.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 3.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $80 |
| Current Share Price | $1.2K |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -93.6% |
Valuation Summary
$79.56
Implied Price
$1247.00
Current Price
-93.6%
Upside/Downside
8.2%
WACC
BH-A Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-1466.68
-217.6%
Peer Median: 32.4x
EV/EBITDA
$2.52K
+101.8%
Peer Median: 16.0x
P/S Ratio
$504.22
-59.6%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for BH-A's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | BH-A Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -27.5x | 32.4x | 35.1x | -185.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1x | 16.0x | 14.5x | -42.9% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.1x | 0.9x | 2.0x | 147.3% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.24B | 34.6x | 18.2x | 0.4x | |
| $0.91B | 74.1x | 19.7x | 0.9x | |
| $0.97B | 45.4x | 16.0x | 0.7x | |
| $0.72B | 26.4x | 13.8x | 1.0x | |
| $0.92B | 0.0x | 393.4x | 3.6x | |
| $0.78B | 32.4x | 9.0x | 2.1x | |
| $0.68B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 520.0x | |
| $0.65B | 5.5x | 9.9x | 0.2x | |
| $0.50B | 0.0x | 9.9x | 0.3x | |
| $219.75B | 27.0x | 19.5x | 8.5x |