Complete RBC Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
RBC DCF Analysis
RBC (RBC Bearings Incorporated) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2021 (Historical) | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Projected) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $942.9M | $1.5B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.4B | $3.0B | $3.6B | $4.3B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 55.8% | 6.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 23.1% | 20.8% | 18.7% |
| EBIT | $63.7M | $171.0M | $342.2M | $262.2M | $330.1M | $409.5M | $498.4M | $596.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | 6.8% | 11.6% | 21.9% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 13.8% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.8% | 20.5% | 19.8% | 20.6% | 21.0% | 21.5% | 21.9% | 22.4% |
| NOPAT | $47.2M | $135.9M | $274.4M | $208.2M | $260.7M | $321.6M | $389.2M | $462.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 5.0% | 9.2% | 17.6% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
| Capex | $29.8M | $42.0M | $33.2M | $59.3M | $70.4M | $82.4M | $94.6M | $106.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Depreciation | $65.5M | $115.4M | $119.3M | $146.0M | $182.4M | $224.6M | $271.4M | $322.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Change in NWC | $8.8M | $-44.8M | $67.2M | $10.7M | $10.7M | $10.5M | $10.2M | $9.7M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.9% | -3.0% | 4.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $74.2M | $254.1M | $293.3M | $284.1M | $362.0M | $453.3M | $555.9M | $668.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 242.4% | 15.4% | -3.1% | 27.4% | 25.2% | 22.6% | 20.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 7.9% | 17.3% | 18.8% | 14.6% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 15.3% | 15.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.903 | 0.815 | 0.736 | 0.664 | 0.600 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $256.5M | $295.1M | $333.6M | $369.3M | $401.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $256.5M | $551.6M | $885.2M | $1.3B | $1.7B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Tax Rate | 20.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.67 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.5% |
| Total Debt | $1.3B |
| Market Cap | $12.2B |
| Total Capital | $13.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 9.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 90.5% |
| WACC | 10.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $668.8M |
| Terminal Value | $8.3B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $5.0B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.7B |
| Net Debt | $1.2B |
| Equity Value | $5.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 29.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $185 |
| Current Share Price | $388 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -52.2% |
Valuation Summary
$185.32
Implied Price
$388.00
Current Price
-52.2%
Upside/Downside
10.8%
WACC
RBC Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$217.24
-44.0%
Peer Median: 28.9x
EV/EBITDA
$288.27
-25.7%
Peer Median: 18.8x
P/S Ratio
$233.12
-39.9%
Peer Median: 4.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for RBC's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | RBC Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 51.5x | 28.9x | 30.0x | 78.6% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.8x | 18.8x | 18.9x | 48.1% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 7.6x | 4.6x | 5.0x | 66.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.30B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 11.5x | |
| $16.81B | 16.8x | 11.2x | 3.5x | |
| $14.79B | 31.1x | 21.4x | 6.9x | |
| $13.78B | 28.9x | 19.0x | 4.2x | |
| $12.59B | 25.3x | 16.4x | 3.5x | |
| $12.21B | 51.5x | 27.8x | 7.6x | |
| $12.59B | 28.3x | 18.6x | 4.7x | |
| $11.96B | 26.4x | 17.4x | 3.0x | |
| $11.13B | 30.6x | 12.3x | 0.7x | |
| $11.09B | 33.5x | 25.9x | 5.2x | |
| $90.09B | 27.2x | 18.8x | 4.6x |
RBC Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $7.53 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $94.28 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$126.38
Intrinsic Value
$388.00
Current Price
-67.4%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 7.53 = 169.42
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
169.42 × 94.28 = 15972.70
Step 3: Take square root
√15972.70 = 126.38
Graham Number Result:
$126.38
RBC Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
7.53 × (8.5 + 2 × 21.4%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$7.53
Latest 10-K • 2024-03-30T00:00:00
Historical 3Y21.4%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y8.4%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$386.38
Intrinsic Value
$388.00
Current Price
-0.4%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 21.4%
RBC Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$7.53
Latest 10-K • 2024-03-30T00:00:00
Historical 3Y21.4%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y8.4%
5-year earnings growth
21.4%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$7.53 × 21.4% = $161.19
$161.19
Fair Value
$388.00
Current Price
-58.5%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
51.5x
Current P/E
21.4%
Growth Rate
2.41
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
RBC Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.2 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.2 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$85.19
EPV per Share
$388.00
Current Price
-78.0%
Upside/Downside
8.4%
WACC: 8.4% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.2B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $2.5B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $2.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $85.19 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 89.8% |
| Debt Weight | 10.2% |
| WACC | 8.4% |