Complete SYM Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SYM DCF Analysis
SYM (Symbotic Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | $593.3M | $1.2B | $1.8B | $2.2B | $2.8B | $3.5B | $4.4B | $5.5B |
Revenue Growth % | - | 98.4% | 51.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
EBIT | $-140.4M | $-223.2M | $-116.7M | $111.8M | $139.7M | $174.6M | $218.3M | $272.9M |
EBIT Margin % | -23.7% | -19.0% | -6.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
NOPAT | $-105.3M | $-167.4M | $-87.5M | $83.8M | $104.8M | $131.0M | $163.7M | $204.6M |
NOPAT Margin % | -17.7% | -14.2% | -4.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
Capex | $17.9M | $21.3M | $44.4M | $78.9M | $93.7M | $111.3M | $132.2M | $157.0M |
Capex / Revenue % | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
Depreciation | $6.0M | $11.3M | $23.5M | $24.5M | $30.6M | $38.2M | $47.8M | $59.7M |
D&A / Revenue % | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
Change in NWC | $159.0M | $-116.1M | $372.1M | $-110.3M | $-110.3M | $-110.3M | $-110.3M | $-110.3M |
NWC Change / Revenue % | 26.8% | -9.9% | 20.8% | -4.9% | -3.9% | -3.2% | -2.5% | -2.0% |
Unlevered FCF | $-276.2M | $-61.3M | $-480.5M | $139.6M | $151.9M | $168.1M | $189.6M | $217.7M |
UFCF % Chg. | - | 77.8% | -683.4% | 129.1% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 14.8% |
FCF / Revenue % | -46.6% | -5.2% | -26.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% |
Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.887 | 0.787 | 0.699 | 0.620 | 0.550 |
Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $123.9M | $119.6M | $117.5M | $117.5M | $119.8M |
Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $123.9M | $243.5M | $361.0M | $478.5M | $598.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
WACC Calculation | Value |
---|---|
Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
Tax Rate | 25.0% |
After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.9% |
Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
Beta | 1.95 |
Cost of Equity | 12.7% |
Total Debt | $0 |
Market Cap | $23.3B |
Total Capital | $23.3B |
Debt Weighting | 0.0% |
Equity Weighting | 100.0% |
WACC | 12.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
---|---|
Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
Final Year FCF | $217.7M |
Terminal Value | $2.2B |
PV of Terminal Value | $1.2B |
Cumulative PV of UFCF | $598.3M |
Net Debt | $-727.3M |
Equity Value | $2.5B |
Shares Outstanding | 95.7M |
Implied Share Price | $26 |
Current Share Price | $40 |
Implied Upside/(Downside) | -33.7% |
Valuation Summary
$26.44
Implied Price
$39.90
Current Price
-33.7%
Upside/Downside
12.7%
WACC
SYM Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-3.12
-107.8%
Peer Median: 27.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 18.8x
P/S Ratio
$12.98
-67.5%
Peer Median: 3.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SYM's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
Multiple | SYM Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
P/E Ratio | -347.1x | 27.2x | 26.8x | -1377.3% | Undervalued |
EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 18.8x | 17.8x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
P/S Ratio | 11.5x | 3.7x | 4.7x | 207.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|
$39.72B | 26.2x | 21.9x | 2.8x | |
$34.74B | 42.6x | 21.3x | 4.8x | |
$32.07B | 35.5x | 18.8x | 3.7x | |
$25.75B | 11.3x | 15.2x | 3.2x | |
$18.31B | 23.3x | 14.1x | 3.0x | |
$23.30B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 11.5x | |
$16.81B | 16.8x | 11.2x | 3.5x | |
$14.79B | 31.1x | 21.4x | 6.9x | |
$13.78B | 28.9x | 19.0x | 4.2x | |
$12.59B | 25.3x | 16.4x | 3.5x | |
$90.09B | 27.2x | 18.8x | 4.6x |