Complete HLMN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
HLMN DCF Analysis
HLMN (Hillman Solutions Corp.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -0.7% | -0.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| EBIT | $39.9M | $60.9M | $88.8M | $74.3M | $75.0M | $75.6M | $76.1M | $76.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 35.0% | 27.0% | 26.8% | 26.6% | 26.4% | 26.2% |
| NOPAT | $29.9M | $45.7M | $57.7M | $54.3M | $54.9M | $55.5M | $56.0M | $56.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Capex | $69.6M | $65.8M | $85.2M | $65.0M | $62.3M | $59.6M | $57.0M | $54.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% |
| Depreciation | $120.0M | $121.6M | $130.0M | $124.6M | $125.7M | $126.7M | $127.6M | $128.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| Change in NWC | $25.2M | $-91.3M | $-5.4M | $-18.1M | $-14.6M | $-11.7M | $-9.5M | $-7.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 1.7% | -6.2% | -0.4% | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $55.1M | $192.9M | $107.9M | $132.0M | $132.9M | $134.3M | $136.0M | $138.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 249.8% | -44.1% | 22.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 3.7% | 13.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.914 | 0.836 | 0.765 | 0.699 | 0.640 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $120.7M | $111.1M | $102.7M | $95.1M | $88.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $120.7M | $231.8M | $334.5M | $429.7M | $517.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.2% |
| Tax Rate | 27.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.67 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.5% |
| Total Debt | $793.0M |
| Market Cap | $1.5B |
| Total Capital | $2.3B |
| Debt Weighting | 34.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 65.8% |
| WACC | 9.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $138.0M |
| Terminal Value | $2.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.3B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $517.9M |
| Net Debt | $748.5M |
| Equity Value | $1.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 198.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $8 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -29.0% |
Valuation Summary
$5.48
Implied Price
$7.72
Current Price
-29.0%
Upside/Downside
9.4%
WACC
HLMN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$2.54
-67.1%
Peer Median: 27.2x
EV/EBITDA
$11.51
+49.1%
Peer Median: 12.1x
P/S Ratio
$11.38
+47.5%
Peer Median: 1.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for HLMN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | HLMN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 82.6x | 27.2x | 31.2x | 203.9% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1x | 12.1x | 13.8x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 1.0x | 1.5x | 2.1x | -32.2% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7.98B | 39.8x | 22.0x | 4.0x | |
| $2.22B | 24.3x | 16.8x | 3.7x | |
| $2.17B | 28.7x | 12.2x | 1.8x | |
| $1.98B | 32.6x | 18.5x | 2.6x | |
| $1.85B | 17.3x | 8.5x | 0.9x | |
| $1.52B | 82.6x | 12.1x | 1.0x | |
| $1.51B | 14.1x | 8.6x | 0.5x | |
| $1.51B | 22.5x | 11.7x | 1.2x | |
| $1.18B | 31.9x | 10.7x | 1.5x | |
| $1.01B | 22.7x | 12.0x | 1.5x | |
| $90.09B | 27.2x | 18.8x | 4.6x |
HLMN Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.09 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $5.94 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$3.53
Intrinsic Value
$7.72
Current Price
-54.2%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.09 = 2.10
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
2.10 × 5.94 = 12.49
Step 3: Take square root
√12.49 = 3.53
Graham Number Result:
$3.53
HLMN Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.09 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.09
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-28T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$2.29
Intrinsic Value
$7.72
Current Price
-70.3%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
HLMN Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.09
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-28T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.09 × 10.0% = $0.93
$0.93
Fair Value
$7.72
Current Price
-87.9%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
82.6x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
8.26
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).