Complete PHAT Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
PHAT DCF Analysis
PHAT (Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0 | $682.0K | $55.3M | $69.1M | $86.3M | $107.9M | $134.9M | $168.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | Infinity% | 8001.5% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-172.4M | $-167.3M | $-277.5M | $3.5M | $4.3M | $5.4M | $6.7M | $8.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | 0.0% | -24532.6% | -502.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-129.3M | $-125.5M | $-208.1M | $2.6M | $3.2M | $4.0M | $5.1M | $6.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -Infinity% | -18399.4% | -376.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $1.0M | $1.6M | $0 | $690.6K | $863.3K | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | Infinity% | 239.6% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $620.0K | $575.0K | $795.0K | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| D&A / Revenue % | Infinity% | 84.3% | 1.4% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Change in NWC | $-33.3M | $224.4M | $-84.2M | $690.6K | $863.3K | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.7M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -Infinity% | 32899.7% | -152.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-96.4M | $-350.9M | $-123.1M | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -263.9% | 64.9% | Infinity% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -Infinity% | -51454.4% | -222.7% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.953 | 0.908 | 0.865 | 0.824 | 0.785 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.10 |
| Cost of Equity | 4.8% |
| Total Debt | $201.9M |
| Market Cap | $332.3M |
| Total Capital | $534.2M |
| Debt Weighting | 37.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 62.2% |
| WACC | 4.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $InfinityB |
| Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| PV of Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $InfinityB |
| Net Debt | $-95.4M |
| Equity Value | $InfinityB |
| Shares Outstanding | 63.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $InfinityB |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +Infinity% |
Valuation Summary
$Infinity
Implied Price
$4.76
Current Price
+Infinity%
Upside/Downside
4.9%
WACC
PHAT Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-217.51
-4669.5%
Peer Median: 62.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 45.5x
P/S Ratio
$7.71
+62.0%
Peer Median: 6.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PHAT's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PHAT Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.4x | 62.2x | 62.2x | -102.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 45.5x | 45.5x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.1x | 6.6x | 7.6x | -38.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.45B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.39B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.8x | |
| $0.24B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.33B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.1x | |
| $0.32B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.36B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.6x | |
| $0.28B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $727.54B | 62.2x | 45.5x | 14.8x |