Complete FULC Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
FULC DCF Analysis
FULC (Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.3M | $2.8M | $80.0M | $100.0M | $125.0M | $156.3M | $195.3M | $244.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -55.8% | 2752.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-112.6M | $-110.7M | $-21.9M | $5.0M | $6.3M | $7.8M | $9.8M | $12.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | -1774.9% | -3945.2% | -27.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-84.4M | $-83.0M | $-16.4M | $3.8M | $4.7M | $5.9M | $7.3M | $9.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -1331.1% | -2958.9% | -20.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $2.0M | $508.0K | $278.0K | $10.7M | $12.6M | $15.0M | $17.8M | $21.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 31.0% | 18.1% | 0.3% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% |
| Depreciation | $2.4M | $2.2M | $1.6M | $39.2M | $49.0M | $61.2M | $76.5M | $95.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 38.1% | 77.4% | 2.0% | 39.2% | 39.2% | 39.2% | 39.2% | 39.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-16.0M | $37.7M | $10.4M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -252.4% | 1345.1% | 12.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-68.0M | $-119.1M | $-25.5M | $32.3M | $41.0M | $52.0M | $66.0M | $83.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -75.2% | 78.6% | 226.7% | 27.1% | 26.9% | 26.8% | 26.7% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -1071.7% | -4244.7% | -31.8% | 32.3% | 32.8% | 33.3% | 33.8% | 34.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.872 | 0.760 | 0.663 | 0.578 | 0.504 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $28.1M | $31.2M | $34.5M | $38.2M | $42.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $28.1M | $59.3M | $93.8M | $132.0M | $174.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.42 |
| Cost of Equity | 14.9% |
| Total Debt | $8.6M |
| Market Cap | $393.5M |
| Total Capital | $402.1M |
| Debt Weighting | 2.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 97.9% |
| WACC | 14.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $83.6M |
| Terminal Value | $704.0M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $355.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $174.1M |
| Net Debt | $-49.6M |
| Equity Value | $578.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 62.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $9 |
| Current Share Price | $7 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +28.1% |
Valuation Summary
$9.34
Implied Price
$7.29
Current Price
+28.1%
Upside/Downside
14.7%
WACC
FULC Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-0.51
-107.0%
Peer Median: 62.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 45.4x
P/S Ratio
$11.92
+63.6%
Peer Median: 8.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for FULC's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | FULC Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -893.1x | 62.2x | 62.2x | -1535.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 45.4x | 45.4x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.9x | 8.0x | 8.3x | -38.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.39B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.46B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.6x | |
| $0.61B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.9x | |
| $0.47B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.39B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.9x | |
| $0.27B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.66B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 8.0x | |
| $727.08B | 62.2x | 45.4x | 14.8x |