Complete MRSN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
MRSN DCF Analysis
MRSN (Mersana Therapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.6M | $36.9M | $40.5M | $50.6M | $63.3M | $79.1M | $98.9M | $123.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 38.7% | 9.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-204.7M | $-171.0M | $-73.3M | $2.5M | $3.2M | $4.0M | $4.9M | $6.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | -770.1% | -463.9% | -181.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-153.5M | $-128.2M | $-55.0M | $1.9M | $2.4M | $3.0M | $3.7M | $4.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -577.6% | -347.9% | -135.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $2.2M | $2.2M | $132.0K | $2.4M | $2.9M | $3.4M | $4.1M | $4.9M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 8.3% | 5.9% | 0.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| Depreciation | $927.0K | $1.5M | $1.6M | $2.0M | $2.5M | $3.1M | $3.8M | $4.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Change in NWC | $86.3M | $-77.3M | $-76.0M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 324.7% | -209.6% | -187.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-241.1M | $-51.6M | $22.5M | $1.4M | $1.9M | $2.6M | $3.4M | $4.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 78.6% | 143.5% | -93.7% | 35.8% | 34.4% | 33.3% | 32.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -907.0% | -140.0% | 55.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.936 | 0.876 | 0.819 | 0.767 | 0.717 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.3M | $1.7M | $2.1M | $2.6M | $3.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.3M | $3.0M | $5.1M | $7.8M | $11.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.82 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.9% |
| Total Debt | $28.6M |
| Market Cap | $45.4M |
| Total Capital | $74.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 38.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 61.3% |
| WACC | 6.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $4.6M |
| Terminal Value | $107.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $76.8M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $11.1M |
| Net Debt | $-79.2M |
| Equity Value | $167.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 122.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $1 |
| Current Share Price | $0 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +274.5% |
Valuation Summary
$1.36
Implied Price
$0.36
Current Price
+274.5%
Upside/Downside
6.9%
WACC
MRSN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 6 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$1.57
+332.6%
Peer Median: 5.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for MRSN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | MRSN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.6x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | -Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.3x | 5.8x | 4.7x | -76.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.9x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 210.3x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.9x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.3x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 5.8x |