Complete MEIP Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
MEIP DCF Analysis
MEIP (MEI Pharma, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $40.7M | $48.8M | $65.3M | $81.6M | $102.0M | $127.0M | $154.9M | $185.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 19.9% | 33.8% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.5% | 22.0% | 19.8% |
| EBIT | $-75.5M | $-36.8M | $14.5M | $4.1M | $5.1M | $6.3M | $7.7M | $9.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -185.5% | -75.3% | 22.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.5% | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% |
| NOPAT | $-56.6M | $-27.6M | $14.5M | $3.3M | $4.1M | $5.0M | $6.1M | $7.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -139.1% | -56.5% | 22.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $479.0K | $35.0K | $7.0K | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.6M | $1.9M | $2.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Depreciation | $326.0K | $386.0K | $383.0K | $592.7K | $740.8K | $922.0K | $1.1M | $1.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Change in NWC | $8.2M | $-55.5M | $-54.8M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 20.1% | -113.7% | -83.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-64.9M | $28.3M | $69.7M | $2.7M | $3.4M | $4.3M | $5.3M | $6.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 143.5% | 146.5% | -96.1% | 26.8% | 26.0% | 23.4% | 21.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -159.5% | 57.9% | 106.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.957 | 0.916 | 0.877 | 0.840 | 0.804 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $2.6M | $3.1M | $3.8M | $4.5M | $5.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $2.6M | $5.7M | $9.5M | $13.9M | $19.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 20.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.00 |
| Cost of Equity | 4.5% |
| Total Debt | $0 |
| Market Cap | $14.3M |
| Total Capital | $14.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 100.0% |
| WACC | 4.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $6.4M |
| Terminal Value | $335.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $269.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $19.1M |
| Net Debt | $-3.7M |
| Equity Value | $292.4M |
| Shares Outstanding | 6.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $44 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +1940.9% |
Valuation Summary
$43.88
Implied Price
$2.15
Current Price
+1940.9%
Upside/Downside
4.5%
WACC
MEIP Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-45.98
-2238.7%
Peer Median: 9.7x
EV/EBITDA
$1.59
-25.9%
Peer Median: 1.2x
P/S Ratio
$5.75
+167.4%
Peer Median: 0.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for MEIP's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | MEIP Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.5x | 9.7x | 5.3x | -104.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.2x | 1.2x | 1.2x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.2x | 0.4x | 0.3x | -62.6% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.8x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 248.2x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 1.0x | 1.2x | 0.2x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.4x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 9.7x | -18.0x | 31.6x |