Complete EQ Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
EQ DCF Analysis
EQ (Equillium, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.8M | $36.1M | $41.1M | $51.4M | $64.2M | $80.3M | $100.3M | $125.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 129.0% | 13.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-62.1M | $-14.5M | $-8.3M | $2.6M | $3.2M | $4.0M | $5.0M | $6.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -393.9% | -40.2% | -20.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-46.6M | $-10.9M | $-6.2M | $1.9M | $2.4M | $3.0M | $3.8M | $4.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -295.4% | -30.2% | -15.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $279.0K | $50.0K | $85.0K | $513.7K | $642.1K | $802.6K | $1.0M | $1.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $118.0K | $126.0K | $137.0K | $245.1K | $306.4K | $382.9K | $478.7K | $598.4K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-29.3M | $-23.4M | $-3.2M | $-3.9M | $-3.9M | $-3.9M | $-3.9M | $-3.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -185.7% | -64.9% | -7.7% | -7.7% | -6.1% | -4.9% | -3.9% | -3.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-17.5M | $12.6M | $-3.0M | $5.6M | $6.0M | $6.5M | $7.2M | $8.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 172.2% | -123.8% | 286.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 11.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -110.8% | 34.9% | -7.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.888 | 0.788 | 0.699 | 0.621 | 0.551 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $5.0M | $4.7M | $4.6M | $4.5M | $4.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $5.0M | $9.7M | $14.3M | $18.7M | $23.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.95 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.9% |
| Total Debt | $384.0K |
| Market Cap | $13.3M |
| Total Capital | $13.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 2.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 97.2% |
| WACC | 12.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $8.0M |
| Terminal Value | $80.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $44.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $23.1M |
| Net Debt | $-17.7M |
| Equity Value | $85.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 35.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $0 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +545.8% |
Valuation Summary
$2.41
Implied Price
$0.37
Current Price
+545.8%
Upside/Downside
12.7%
WACC
EQ Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-3.80
-1119.6%
Peer Median: 9.7x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 1.2x
P/S Ratio
$0.37
+0.0%
Peer Median: 0.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for EQ's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | EQ Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.9x | 9.7x | 5.3x | -109.8% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | -Infinityx | 1.2x | 1.2x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.4x | 0.4x | 0.3x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.8x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 248.2x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 1.0x | 1.2x | 0.2x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.4x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 9.7x | -18.0x | 31.6x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 34.5x |