Complete BLUE Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
BLUE DCF Analysis
BLUE (bluebird bio, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.6M | $29.5M | $83.8M | $104.8M | $130.9M | $163.7M | $204.6M | $255.8M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 720.0% | 184.1% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-287.1M | $-244.3M | $-270.5M | $5.2M | $6.5M | $8.2M | $10.2M | $12.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | -7981.4% | -828.1% | -322.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-215.3M | $-183.2M | $-202.8M | $3.9M | $4.9M | $6.1M | $7.7M | $9.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -5986.1% | -621.1% | -242.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $13.2M | $9.1M | $2.6M | $7.7M | $9.1M | $10.8M | $12.9M | $15.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 367.2% | 30.7% | 3.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% |
| Depreciation | $5.0M | $28.5M | $61.2M | $107.8M | $134.8M | $168.5M | $210.6M | $263.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 139.0% | 96.7% | 73.1% | 102.9% | 102.9% | 102.9% | 102.9% | 102.9% |
| Change in NWC | $-112.3M | $10.3M | $-248.4M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -3121.4% | 35.0% | -296.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-111.3M | $-174.0M | $104.2M | $104.1M | $130.6M | $163.8M | $205.4M | $257.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -56.4% | 159.8% | -0.1% | 25.5% | 25.4% | 25.4% | 25.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -3092.9% | -590.1% | 124.3% | 99.4% | 99.7% | 100.1% | 100.4% | 100.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.950 | 0.902 | 0.857 | 0.814 | 0.773 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $98.9M | $117.8M | $140.4M | $167.3M | $199.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $98.9M | $216.7M | $357.1M | $524.4M | $723.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.36 |
| Cost of Equity | 6.0% |
| Total Debt | $358.2M |
| Market Cap | $48.7M |
| Total Capital | $406.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 88.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 12.0% |
| WACC | 5.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $257.6M |
| Terminal Value | $9.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $7.4B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $723.6M |
| Net Debt | $295.9M |
| Equity Value | $7.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 9.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $805 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +16091.4% |
Valuation Summary
$804.71
Implied Price
$4.97
Current Price
+16091.4%
Upside/Downside
5.3%
WACC
BLUE Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$6.05
+21.7%
Peer Median: 0.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for BLUE's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | BLUE Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.2x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 0.6x | 1.8x | -17.9% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 522.2x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2566.4x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.6x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 5.9x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.4x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 190.2x |