Complete ATRA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
ATRA DCF Analysis
ATRA (Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $63.6M | $8.6M | $128.9M | $161.2M | $201.5M | $251.8M | $314.8M | $393.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -86.5% | 1404.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-280.5M | $-276.0M | $-83.4M | $8.1M | $10.1M | $12.6M | $15.7M | $19.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | -441.2% | -3219.5% | -64.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-210.4M | $-207.0M | $-62.6M | $6.0M | $7.6M | $9.4M | $11.8M | $14.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -330.9% | -2414.6% | -48.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $4.2M | $1.2M | $246.0K | $11.3M | $13.4M | $15.9M | $18.9M | $22.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 6.6% | 14.3% | 0.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% |
| Depreciation | $5.7M | $4.8M | $4.8M | $37.0M | $46.3M | $57.9M | $72.4M | $90.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 8.9% | 56.3% | 3.7% | 23.0% | 23.0% | 23.0% | 23.0% | 23.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-62.7M | $-256.5M | $-29.3M | $1.6M | $2.0M | $2.5M | $3.1M | $3.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -98.6% | -2992.2% | -22.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-146.3M | $53.1M | $-28.7M | $30.2M | $38.4M | $48.9M | $62.1M | $78.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 136.3% | -154.0% | 205.1% | 27.3% | 27.2% | 27.0% | 26.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -230.1% | 619.6% | -22.3% | 18.7% | 19.1% | 19.4% | 19.7% | 20.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.951 | 0.904 | 0.860 | 0.817 | 0.777 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $28.7M | $34.7M | $42.0M | $50.7M | $61.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $28.7M | $63.4M | $105.4M | $156.1M | $217.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.18 |
| Cost of Equity | 5.2% |
| Total Debt | $43.8M |
| Market Cap | $58.7M |
| Total Capital | $102.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 42.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 57.3% |
| WACC | 5.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $78.8M |
| Terminal Value | $3.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.4B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $217.4M |
| Net Debt | $18.8M |
| Equity Value | $2.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 7.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $340 |
| Current Share Price | $9 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +3839.5% |
Valuation Summary
$340.38
Implied Price
$8.64
Current Price
+3839.5%
Upside/Downside
5.2%
WACC
ATRA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$8.64
+0.0%
Peer Median: 0.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ATRA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ATRA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -6.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.6x | 0.6x | 1.9x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.09B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 77.0x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 522.2x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2511.5x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.6x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.0x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.4x |