Complete XBIO Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
XBIO DCF Analysis
XBIO (Xenetic Biosciences, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.7M | $2.5M | $2.5M | $3.1M | $3.9M | $4.9M | $6.1M | $7.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 48.8% | -1.6% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-6.7M | $-4.5M | $-4.2M | $156.3K | $195.3K | $244.2K | $305.2K | $381.5K |
| EBIT Margin % | -393.6% | -177.8% | -168.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-5.0M | $-3.4M | $-3.2M | $117.2K | $146.5K | $183.1K | $228.9K | $286.1K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -295.2% | -133.3% | -126.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $500.0K | $0 | $0 | $31.3K | $39.1K | $48.8K | $61.0K | $76.3K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 29.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $27.0K | $0 | $0 | $16.5K | $20.6K | $25.8K | $32.2K | $40.3K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-4.7M | $-3.8M | $-3.1M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -276.6% | -149.7% | -123.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-789.3K | $416.1K | $-69.3K | $102.5K | $128.1K | $160.1K | $200.1K | $250.1K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 152.7% | -116.7% | 247.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -46.2% | 16.4% | -2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.875 | 0.766 | 0.671 | 0.587 | 0.514 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $89.7K | $98.2K | $107.4K | $117.5K | $128.6K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $89.7K | $187.8K | $295.2K | $412.8K | $541.4K |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.29 |
| Cost of Equity | 14.2% |
| Total Debt | $0 |
| Market Cap | $5.4M |
| Total Capital | $5.4M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 100.0% |
| WACC | 14.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $250.1K |
| Terminal Value | $2.2M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $541.4K |
| Net Debt | $-6.2M |
| Equity Value | $7.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +46.0% |
Valuation Summary
$5.08
Implied Price
$3.48
Current Price
+46.0%
Upside/Downside
14.2%
WACC
XBIO Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 4 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$10.11
+190.4%
Peer Median: 6.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for XBIO's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | XBIO Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.5x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | -Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.1x | 6.0x | 4.1x | -65.6% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.0x | |
| $0.00B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.1x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 783.5x |