Complete TRAW Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
TRAW DCF Analysis
TRAW (Traws Pharma, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $226.0K | $226.0K | $226.0K | $225.5K | $225.1K | $224.7K | $224.3K | $224.0K |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| EBIT | $-19.6M | $-20.3M | $-142.4M | $11.3K | $11.3K | $11.2K | $11.2K | $11.2K |
| EBIT Margin % | -8684.5% | -8981.4% | -62997.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-14.7M | $-15.2M | $-106.8M | $8.5K | $8.4K | $8.4K | $8.4K | $8.4K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -6513.4% | -6736.1% | -47248.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $0 | $14.0K | $0 | $5.7K | $5.4K | $5.1K | $4.9K | $4.6K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.0% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| Depreciation | $14.0K | $16.0K | $12.0K | $14.0K | $13.9K | $13.9K | $13.9K | $13.9K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-18.0M | $-17.9M | $-22.0K | $-11.0K | $-8.8K | $-7.0K | $-5.6K | $-4.5K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -7970.8% | -7903.1% | -9.7% | -4.9% | -3.9% | -3.1% | -2.5% | -2.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $3.3M | $2.6M | $-106.7M | $27.7K | $25.7K | $24.2K | $23.0K | $22.1K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -20.2% | -4144.2% | 100.0% | -7.1% | -5.9% | -4.9% | -3.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 1463.6% | 1167.9% | -47233.0% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.903 | 0.815 | 0.736 | 0.665 | 0.600 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $25.0K | $21.0K | $17.8K | $15.3K | $13.3K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $25.0K | $46.0K | $63.8K | $79.1K | $92.4K |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.47 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.7% |
| Total Debt | $0 |
| Market Cap | $9.3M |
| Total Capital | $9.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 100.0% |
| WACC | 10.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $22.1K |
| Terminal Value | $274.9K |
| PV of Terminal Value | $165.1K |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $92.4K |
| Net Debt | $-21.3M |
| Equity Value | $21.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 25.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $1 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -49.1% |
Valuation Summary
$0.85
Implied Price
$1.68
Current Price
-49.1%
Upside/Downside
10.7%
WACC
TRAW Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 4 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-409.54
-24550.3%
Peer Median: 62.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 45.5x
P/S Ratio
$0.60
-64.0%
Peer Median: 14.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TRAW's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TRAW Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.3x | 62.2x | 40.6x | -100.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | -Infinityx | 45.5x | 23.1x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 41.2x | 14.8x | 14.8x | 177.8% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.01B | 19.0x | 0.7x | 474.1x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 41.2x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 55.5x | |
| $727.54B | 62.2x | 45.5x | 14.8x |