Complete SOFI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
SOFI DCF Analysis
SOFI (SoFi Technologies, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | $2.9B | $3.8B | $4.7B | $5.9B | $7.4B | $9.2B | $11.5B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 91.7% | 29.3% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-391.4M | $-301.2M | $233.3M | $235.4M | $294.2M | $367.8M | $459.7M | $574.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | -25.8% | -10.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.5% | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% |
| NOPAT | $-293.6M | $-225.9M | $233.3M | $188.3M | $233.9M | $290.6M | $360.9M | $448.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -19.3% | -7.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $103.7M | $111.4M | $154.3M | $230.1M | $273.2M | $324.5M | $385.3M | $457.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 6.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| Depreciation | $151.4M | $201.4M | $203.5M | $349.7M | $437.1M | $546.4M | $683.0M | $853.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 10.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-6.7B | $28.7B | $6.8B | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -443.4% | 987.3% | 181.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $6.5B | $-28.9B | $-6.6B | $307.9M | $397.8M | $512.4M | $658.5M | $844.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -545.1% | 77.3% | 104.7% | 29.2% | 28.8% | 28.5% | 28.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 427.2% | -991.9% | -174.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.900 | 0.811 | 0.730 | 0.658 | 0.592 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $277.3M | $322.5M | $374.2M | $433.0M | $500.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $277.3M | $599.8M | $974.0M | $1.4B | $1.9B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.4% |
| Tax Rate | 20.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.85 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.5% |
| Total Debt | $3.1B |
| Market Cap | $14.7B |
| Total Capital | $17.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 17.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 82.6% |
| WACC | 11.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $844.4M |
| Terminal Value | $10.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $6.0B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.9B |
| Net Debt | $555.0M |
| Equity Value | $7.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 1101.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $7 |
| Current Share Price | $13 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -49.8% |
Valuation Summary
$6.67
Implied Price
$13.29
Current Price
-49.8%
Upside/Downside
11.0%
WACC
SOFI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Financial Services
P/E Ratio
$8.20
-38.3%
Peer Median: 20.2x
EV/EBITDA
$4.29
-67.7%
Peer Median: 12.1x
P/S Ratio
$5.62
-57.7%
Peer Median: 2.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SOFI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SOFI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.7x | 20.2x | 19.6x | 61.9% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.9x | 12.1x | 18.1x | 221.1% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 5.3x | 2.2x | 2.3x | 136.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $207.02B | 20.2x | 14.7x | 2.7x | |
| $121.47B | 15.0x | 13.3x | 2.2x | |
| $22.01B | 7.7x | 9.4x | 1.2x | |
| $14.68B | 32.7x | 38.9x | 5.3x | |
| $10.84B | 38.1x | 12.1x | 0.7x | |
| $6.81B | 11.2x | 10.5x | 3.2x | |
| $6.19B | 11.0x | 10.0x | 1.5x | |
| $5.57B | 20.3x | 45.0x | 2.5x | |
| $5.70B | 20.5x | 8.6x | 1.7x |
SOFI Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.41 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $5.92 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$7.36
Intrinsic Value
$13.29
Current Price
-44.6%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.41 = 9.14
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
9.14 × 5.92 = 54.17
Step 3: Take square root
√54.17 = 7.36
Graham Number Result:
$7.36
SOFI Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.41 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.41
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$9.96
Intrinsic Value
$13.29
Current Price
-25.1%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
SOFI Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.41
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.41 × 10.0% = $4.06
$4.06
Fair Value
$13.29
Current Price
-69.4%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
32.7x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
3.27
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).