Complete LPCN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
LPCN DCF Analysis
LPCN (Lipocine Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $500.0K | $-2.9M | $11.2M | $10.1M | $9.1M | $8.2M | $7.3M | $6.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -670.2% | -492.8% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $-12.1M | $-17.9M | $-1.2M | $503.9K | $453.5K | $408.2K | $367.4K | $330.6K |
| EBIT Margin % | -2423.9% | 629.0% | -10.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 7.5% | 21.5% | 21.9% | 22.2% | 22.6% | 22.9% |
| NOPAT | $-9.1M | $-13.4M | $-1.1M | $395.5K | $354.4K | $317.5K | $284.5K | $254.9K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -1817.9% | 471.7% | -9.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $133.8K | $13.2K | $90.1K | $100.8K | $90.7K | $81.6K | $73.5K | $66.1K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 26.8% | -0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $9.5K | $28.7K | $41.1K | $42.1K | $37.9K | $34.1K | $30.7K | $27.6K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.9% | -1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-8.3M | $-12.2M | $579.1K | $521.2K | $375.3K | $270.2K | $194.5K | $140.1K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -1661.2% | 428.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-907.8K | $-1.2M | $-1.7M | $-184.4K | $-73.7K | $-229 | $47.1K | $76.3K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -32.8% | -40.7% | 89.1% | 60.0% | 99.7% | 20696.0% | 61.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -181.6% | 42.3% | -15.1% | -1.8% | -0.8% | -0.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.900 | 0.811 | 0.730 | 0.657 | 0.592 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $-166.0K | $-59.8K | $-167 | $31.0K | $45.1K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $-166.0K | $-225.8K | $-226.0K | $-195.0K | $-149.8K |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 21.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.52 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.1% |
| Total Debt | $0 |
| Market Cap | $17.7M |
| Total Capital | $17.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 100.0% |
| WACC | 11.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $76.3K |
| Terminal Value | $913.3K |
| PV of Terminal Value | $540.4K |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $-149.8K |
| Net Debt | $-6.2M |
| Equity Value | $6.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 5.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $1 |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -63.2% |
Valuation Summary
$1.22
Implied Price
$3.31
Current Price
-63.2%
Upside/Downside
11.1%
WACC
LPCN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-61.37
-1956.9%
Peer Median: 61.1x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 44.7x
P/S Ratio
$5.96
+80.2%
Peer Median: 8.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for LPCN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | LPCN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -3.3x | 61.1x | 61.1x | -105.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 44.7x | 44.7x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.8x | 8.7x | 9.4x | -44.5% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 733.2x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.8x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 8.7x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 27.3x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $714.38B | 61.1x | 44.7x | 14.6x |