Complete LIPO Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
LIPO DCF Analysis
LIPO (Lipella Pharmaceuticals Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $184.2K | $449.6K | $536.4K | $670.4K | $838.1K | $1.0M | $1.3M | $1.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 144.2% | 19.3% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.8% |
| EBIT | $-2.6M | $-4.7M | $-5.1M | $33.5K | $41.9K | $52.4K | $65.5K | $81.7K |
| EBIT Margin % | -1406.3% | -1055.6% | -947.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-1.9M | $-3.6M | $-3.8M | $25.1K | $31.4K | $39.3K | $49.1K | $61.3K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -1054.7% | -791.7% | -710.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $0 | $14.4K | $0 | $6.7K | $8.4K | $10.5K | $13.1K | $16.3K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $0 | $1.7K | $2.9K | $2.0K | $2.6K | $3.2K | $4.0K | $5.0K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Change in NWC | $3.2M | $-1.6M | $-1.2M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 1712.4% | -350.8% | -220.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-5.1M | $-2.0M | $-2.6M | $20.5K | $25.6K | $32.0K | $40.0K | $49.9K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 60.8% | -31.6% | 100.8% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -2767.1% | -443.7% | -489.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.941 | 0.886 | 0.833 | 0.784 | 0.738 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $19.3K | $22.7K | $26.7K | $31.4K | $36.9K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $19.3K | $41.9K | $68.6K | $100.0K | $136.8K |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.46 |
| Cost of Equity | 6.3% |
| Total Debt | $47.6K |
| Market Cap | $4.2M |
| Total Capital | $4.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 1.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.9% |
| WACC | 6.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $49.9K |
| Terminal Value | $1.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $136.8K |
| Net Debt | $-2.1M |
| Equity Value | $3.3M |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $3 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +229.3% |
Valuation Summary
$3.13
Implied Price
$0.95
Current Price
+229.3%
Upside/Downside
6.3%
WACC
LIPO Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 5 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$85.98
+8950.8%
Peer Median: 3.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for LIPO's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | LIPO Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.0x | 3.0x | 1.5x | -98.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.0x | |
| $0.00B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.5x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 96.7x |