Complete JNJ Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
JNJ DCF Analysis
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $80.0B | $85.2B | $88.8B | $91.9B | $94.8B | $97.5B | $100.0B | $102.3B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| EBIT | $21.0B | $23.4B | $22.1B | $24.1B | $25.0B | $25.8B | $26.5B | $27.3B |
| EBIT Margin % | 26.3% | 27.5% | 24.9% | 26.2% | 26.3% | 26.4% | 26.5% | 26.6% |
| Tax Rate % | 15.4% | 11.5% | 15.7% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 14.7% | 16.0% | 17.3% |
| NOPAT | $17.8B | $20.7B | $18.7B | $21.2B | $21.6B | $22.0B | $22.3B | $22.5B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 22.2% | 24.3% | 21.0% | 23.0% | 22.8% | 22.5% | 22.3% | 22.0% |
| Capex | $4.0B | $4.5B | $4.4B | $4.4B | $4.3B | $4.2B | $4.1B | $4.0B |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| Depreciation | $7.0B | $7.5B | $7.3B | $7.9B | $8.1B | $8.4B | $8.6B | $8.8B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Change in NWC | $-16.3B | $7.7B | $-1.6B | $3.7B | $3.1B | $2.5B | $2.1B | $1.7B |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -20.3% | 9.1% | -1.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $37.0B | $15.9B | $23.2B | $21.0B | $22.4B | $23.6B | $24.7B | $25.6B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -56.9% | 45.8% | -9.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 46.2% | 18.7% | 26.1% | 22.8% | 23.6% | 24.2% | 24.7% | 25.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.944 | 0.890 | 0.840 | 0.793 | 0.748 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $19.8B | $19.9B | $19.8B | $19.6B | $19.2B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $19.8B | $39.7B | $59.6B | $79.1B | $98.3B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 12.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.41 |
| Cost of Equity | 6.1% |
| Total Debt | $36.6B |
| Market Cap | $370.2B |
| Total Capital | $406.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 9.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 91.0% |
| WACC | 6.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $25.6B |
| Terminal Value | $755.9B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $565.4B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $98.3B |
| Net Debt | $12.5B |
| Equity Value | $651.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 2429.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $268 |
| Current Share Price | $154 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +74.2% |
Valuation Summary
$268.06
Implied Price
$153.88
Current Price
+74.2%
Upside/Downside
6.0%
WACC
JNJ Dividend Discount Model
JNJ dividend discount model based on historical dividend payments and projected dividend growth rates
DDM Method Selection
Model Assumptions
Historical 5Y CAGR: 5.3%
Cost of equity (risk-free rate + equity risk premium)
Valuation Result
$596.87
Intrinsic Value
$153.88
Current Price
+287.9%
Upside/Downside
Medium Confidence
Dividend History & Growth Analysis
| Period | Dividend per Share | YoY Growth | Growth Rate | Period Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025Q2 2024 - Q2 2025 | $5.02Current | $0.21 | +4.4% | TTM |
2024Q2 2023 - Q2 2024 | $4.81 | $0.23 | +5.0% | TTM Historical |
2023Q2 2022 - Q2 2023 | $4.58 | $0.27 | +6.3% | TTM Historical |
2022Q2 2021 - Q2 2022 | $4.31 | $0.22 | +5.4% | TTM Historical |
2021Q2 2020 - Q2 2021 | $4.09 | — | — | TTM Historical |
TTM Analysis
Average Growth Rate: +5.3%
TTM Methodology
This analysis uses Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) windows for consistent 12-month comparisons. Each period represents dividends paid over a rolling 12-month window ending on the same calendar date, eliminating partial fiscal year distortions and providing accurate growth rate calculations.
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
Intrinsic Value = D₁ / (r - g)
Substitution:
= $5.28 / (6.1% - 5.3%)
Result:
$596.87
JNJ Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$160.11
+4.0%
Peer Median: 17.8x
EV/EBITDA
$167.44
+8.8%
Peer Median: 11.6x
P/S Ratio
$153.88
+0.0%
Peer Median: 4.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for JNJ's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | JNJ Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.1x | 17.8x | 24.7x | -3.9% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.0x | 11.6x | 16.2x | -5.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 4.1x | 4.1x | 5.4x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $722.17B | 61.8x | 45.1x | 14.7x | |
| $370.25B | 17.1x | 11.0x | 4.1x | |
| $194.76B | 11.3x | 8.0x | 3.0x | |
| $131.39B | 16.8x | 11.6x | 2.1x | |
| $97.51B | 18.0x | 8.5x | 2.0x | |
| $75.08B | 30.0x | 20.0x | 8.1x | |
| $18.90B | 17.8x | 11.0x | 8.3x | |
| $9.94B | 0.0x | 14.2x | 0.7x |
JNJ Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $9.00 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $29.43 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$77.19
Intrinsic Value
$153.88
Current Price
-49.8%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 9.00 = 202.46
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
202.46 × 29.43 = 5957.82
Step 3: Take square root
√5957.82 = 77.19
Graham Number Result:
$77.19
JNJ Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
9.00 × (8.5 + 2 × 0.3%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$9.00
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-29T00:00:00
Historical 5Y0.3%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$82.71
Intrinsic Value
$153.88
Current Price
-46.2%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 0.3%
JNJ Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 14.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 14.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$67.09
EPV per Share
$153.88
Current Price
-56.4%
Upside/Downside
8.6%
WACC: 8.6% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $14.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $163.0B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $163.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.4B |
| EPV per Share | $67.09 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 91.1% |
| Debt Weight | 8.9% |
| WACC | 8.6% |