Complete DAVE Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
DAVE DCF Analysis
DAVE (Dave Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $204.8M | $259.1M | $347.1M | $433.8M | $542.3M | $677.9M | $830.4M | $998.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 26.5% | 34.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 22.5% | 20.3% |
| EBIT | $-146.1M | $-42.2M | $34.6M | $21.7M | $27.1M | $33.9M | $41.5M | $49.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -71.4% | -16.3% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 4.1% | 20.8% | 21.2% | 21.7% | 22.1% | 22.5% |
| NOPAT | $-109.6M | $-31.6M | $33.2M | $17.2M | $21.4M | $26.6M | $32.4M | $38.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -53.5% | -12.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $9.3M | $8.6M | $262.0K | $13.6M | $16.1M | $19.1M | $22.3M | $25.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.5% | 3.3% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| Depreciation | $7.1M | $5.5M | $7.7M | $11.3M | $14.2M | $17.7M | $21.7M | $26.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Change in NWC | $240.6M | $-20.9M | $-4.1M | $-19.7M | $-19.7M | $-19.7M | $-19.3M | $-18.5M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 117.5% | -8.1% | -1.2% | -4.5% | -3.6% | -2.9% | -2.3% | -1.9% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-352.4M | $-13.8M | $44.7M | $34.6M | $39.1M | $44.8M | $51.0M | $57.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 96.1% | 423.3% | -22.6% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 14.0% | 13.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -172.1% | -5.3% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.839 | 0.704 | 0.590 | 0.495 | 0.415 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $29.0M | $27.5M | $26.4M | $25.3M | $24.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $29.0M | $56.5M | $82.9M | $108.2M | $132.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Tax Rate | 20.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 3.50 |
| Cost of Equity | 19.6% |
| Total Debt | $75.6M |
| Market Cap | $2.8B |
| Total Capital | $2.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 2.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 97.4% |
| WACC | 19.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $57.9M |
| Terminal Value | $355.0M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $147.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $132.2M |
| Net Debt | $25.8M |
| Equity Value | $253.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 13.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $18 |
| Current Share Price | $211 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -91.3% |
Valuation Summary
$18.36
Implied Price
$211.29
Current Price
-91.3%
Upside/Downside
19.2%
WACC
DAVE Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$72.77
-65.6%
Peer Median: 20.3x
EV/EBITDA
$67.53
-68.0%
Peer Median: 15.3x
P/S Ratio
$46.10
-78.2%
Peer Median: 1.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for DAVE's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | DAVE Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 59.0x | 20.3x | 20.4x | 190.4% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 48.4x | 15.3x | 21.2x | 215.7% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 7.6x | 1.7x | 2.6x | 358.3% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6.23B | 11.1x | 10.0x | 1.5x | |
| $5.66B | 20.6x | 45.4x | 2.6x | |
| $5.61B | 20.2x | 8.5x | 1.7x | |
| $4.80B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.6x | |
| $4.22B | 21.9x | 15.3x | 3.0x | |
| $2.82B | 59.0x | 48.4x | 7.6x | |
| $2.42B | 9.2x | 10.5x | 0.6x | |
| $2.38B | 10.9x | 42.1x | 0.9x | |
| $1.37B | 24.7x | 15.9x | 0.4x | |
| $1.18B | 5.8x | 1.2x | 0.5x | |
| $208.43B | 20.3x | 14.8x | 2.8x |
DAVE Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $3.58 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $13.25 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$32.67
Intrinsic Value
$211.29
Current Price
-84.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 3.58 = 80.56
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
80.56 × 13.25 = 1067.16
Step 3: Take square root
√1067.16 = 32.67
Graham Number Result:
$32.67
DAVE Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
3.58 × (8.5 + 2 × 132.7%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$3.58
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 5Y132.7%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$980.76
Intrinsic Value
$211.29
Current Price
+364.2%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 132.7%
DAVE Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$3.58
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 5Y132.7%
5-year earnings growth
132.7%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$3.58 × 132.7% = $475.16
$475.16
Fair Value
$211.29
Current Price
+124.9%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
59.0x
Current P/E
132.7%
Growth Rate
0.44
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).