Complete CMG Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
CMG DCF Analysis
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.6B | $9.9B | $11.3B | $13.1B | $14.9B | $16.8B | $18.7B | $20.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 14.3% | 14.6% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 10.3% |
| EBIT | $1.2B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.9B | $3.3B |
| EBIT Margin % | 13.4% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 15.4% | 15.5% | 15.6% | 15.7% | 15.8% |
| Tax Rate % | 23.9% | 24.2% | 23.7% | 18.3% | 19.0% | 19.6% | 20.3% | 21.0% |
| NOPAT | $883.0M | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.6B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 10.2% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Capex | $479.2M | $560.7M | $593.6M | $747.7M | $810.3M | $867.3M | $917.8M | $961.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% |
| Depreciation | $286.8M | $319.4M | $335.0M | $415.1M | $473.5M | $533.5M | $594.3M | $655.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-253.9M | $336.1M | $21.7M | $-14.1M | $-12.9M | $-11.6M | $-10.3M | $-9.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -2.9% | 3.4% | 0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $944.6M | $603.7M | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.3B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -36.1% | 95.8% | 12.2% | 16.8% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 12.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 10.9% | 6.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 11.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.918 | 0.842 | 0.772 | 0.709 | 0.650 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.5B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.2B | $2.5B | $3.9B | $5.3B | $6.8B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Tax Rate | 18.3% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.12 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.3% |
| Total Debt | $4.5B |
| Market Cap | $67.6B |
| Total Capital | $72.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 6.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 93.7% |
| WACC | 9.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $2.3B |
| Terminal Value | $36.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $23.4B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $6.8B |
| Net Debt | $3.8B |
| Equity Value | $26.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 1376.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $19 |
| Current Share Price | $50 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -61.7% |
Valuation Summary
$19.21
Implied Price
$50.17
Current Price
-61.7%
Upside/Downside
9.0%
WACC
CMG Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$34.52
-31.2%
Peer Median: 30.1x
EV/EBITDA
$33.60
-33.0%
Peer Median: 19.1x
P/S Ratio
$44.16
-12.0%
Peer Median: 5.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CMG's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CMG Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.7x | 30.1x | 30.4x | 45.4% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.1x | 19.1x | 19.6x | 57.7% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 5.9x | 5.2x | 4.8x | 13.6% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $224.01B | 27.6x | 19.8x | 8.7x | |
| $98.39B | 31.5x | 19.1x | 2.7x | |
| $90.60B | 274.7x | 109.9x | 8.1x | |
| $67.60B | 43.7x | 30.1x | 5.9x | |
| $40.08B | 28.5x | 17.6x | 5.2x | |
| $25.40B | 24.3x | 16.4x | 2.2x | |
| $15.93B | 26.5x | 22.0x | 3.4x | |
| $12.98B | 30.1x | 19.1x | 2.4x | |
| $11.70B | 198.4x | 61.0x | 8.6x | |
| $10.59B | 31.1x | 12.4x | 0.6x |
CMG Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.15 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $2.66 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$8.28
Intrinsic Value
$50.17
Current Price
-83.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.15 = 25.82
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
25.82 × 2.66 = 68.56
Step 3: Take square root
√68.56 = 8.28
Graham Number Result:
$8.28
CMG Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.15 × (8.5 + 2 × 34.5%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.15
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y34.5%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y35.0%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$89.00
Intrinsic Value
$50.17
Current Price
+77.4%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 34.5%
CMG Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.15
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y34.5%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y35.0%
5-year earnings growth
34.5%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.15 × 34.5% = $39.62
$39.62
Fair Value
$50.17
Current Price
-21.0%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
43.7x
Current P/E
34.5%
Growth Rate
1.27
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Fairly Valued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
CMG Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 1.5 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 1.5 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$12.57
EPV per Share
$50.17
Current Price
-75.0%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC: 8.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $1.5B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $17.3B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $17.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.4B |
| EPV per Share | $12.57 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 93.8% |
| Debt Weight | 6.2% |
| WACC | 8.9% |