Complete CASI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
CASI DCF Analysis
CASI (CASI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $43.1M | $33.9M | $28.5M | $30.2M | $31.8M | $33.2M | $34.6M | $35.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -21.4% | -15.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% |
| EBIT | $-26.5M | $-25.1M | $-39.6M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | -61.5% | -74.0% | -138.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-19.9M | $-18.8M | $-29.7M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -46.1% | -55.5% | -104.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $5.6M | $2.2M | $240.0K | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 13.0% | 6.6% | 0.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% |
| Depreciation | $2.4M | $3.7M | $2.3M | $2.5M | $2.6M | $2.8M | $2.9M | $3.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.6% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Change in NWC | $7.6M | $-13.8M | $-39.5M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 17.7% | -40.7% | -138.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-30.7M | $-3.5M | $11.9M | $1.6M | $1.8M | $2.0M | $2.1M | $2.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 88.6% | 438.2% | -86.8% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -71.2% | -10.4% | 41.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.941 | 0.885 | 0.833 | 0.783 | 0.737 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.5M | $3.0M | $4.7M | $6.3M | $8.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.63 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.1% |
| Total Debt | $22.1M |
| Market Cap | $28.8M |
| Total Capital | $51.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 43.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 56.6% |
| WACC | 6.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $2.3M |
| Terminal Value | $62.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $46.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $8.0M |
| Net Debt | $8.7M |
| Equity Value | $45.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 15.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $3 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +60.1% |
Valuation Summary
$2.98
Implied Price
$1.86
Current Price
+60.1%
Upside/Downside
6.3%
WACC
CASI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$1.86
+0.0%
Peer Median: 1.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CASI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CASI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.7x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.0x | 1.0x | 3.1x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 8.3x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 31.2x | |
| $0.00B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 329.5x |