Complete BOLT Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
BOLT DCF Analysis
BOLT (Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.7M | $7.9M | $7.7M | $9.6M | $12.0M | $15.0M | $18.8M | $23.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 37.5% | -2.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-90.3M | $-76.2M | $-73.0M | $480.6K | $600.8K | $751.0K | $938.7K | $1.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | -1576.6% | -967.4% | -949.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-67.7M | $-57.1M | $-54.8M | $360.5K | $450.6K | $563.2K | $704.0K | $880.1K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -1182.4% | -725.6% | -712.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $2.0M | $206.0K | $41.0K | $151.3K | $179.7K | $213.4K | $253.4K | $300.9K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 34.1% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Depreciation | $1.7M | $1.9M | $1.8M | $2.4M | $3.0M | $3.8M | $4.7M | $5.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 29.1% | 23.5% | 23.2% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.3% |
| Change in NWC | $-18.2M | $-64.4M | $-50.3M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -317.8% | -817.4% | -654.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-49.8M | $8.9M | $-2.8M | $2.6M | $3.3M | $4.1M | $5.2M | $6.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 117.8% | -131.0% | 195.8% | 25.4% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -869.7% | 112.7% | -35.8% | 27.4% | 27.5% | 27.6% | 27.7% | 27.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.943 | 0.889 | 0.838 | 0.790 | 0.745 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $2.5M | $2.9M | $3.5M | $4.1M | $4.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $2.5M | $5.4M | $8.9M | $13.0M | $17.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.91 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.2% |
| Total Debt | $25.2M |
| Market Cap | $11.1M |
| Total Capital | $36.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 69.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 30.6% |
| WACC | 6.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $6.5M |
| Terminal Value | $187.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $139.8M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $17.9M |
| Net Debt | $18.0M |
| Equity Value | $139.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 38.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $4 |
| Current Share Price | $6 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -37.0% |
Valuation Summary
$3.66
Implied Price
$5.80
Current Price
-37.0%
Upside/Downside
6.1%
WACC
BOLT Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$5.80
+0.0%
Peer Median: 3.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for BOLT's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | BOLT Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -3.5x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 3.1x | 3.1x | 3.1x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.5x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 96.7x | |
| $0.00B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 71.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.1x | |
| $0.30B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x |