Complete APLT Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
APLT DCF Analysis
APLT (Applied Therapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0 | $10.0M | $455.0K | $409.5K | $368.6K | $331.7K | $298.5K | $268.7K |
| Revenue Growth % | - | Infinity% | -95.4% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $-83.0M | $-64.5M | $-104.3M | $20.5K | $18.4K | $16.6K | $14.9K | $13.4K |
| EBIT Margin % | 0.0% | -645.8% | -22922.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-62.2M | $-48.4M | $-78.2M | $15.4K | $13.8K | $12.4K | $11.2K | $10.1K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -Infinity% | -484.4% | -17192.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $0 | $0 | $0 | $4.1K | $3.7K | $3.3K | $3.0K | $2.7K |
| Capex / Revenue % | NaN% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $443.0K | $354.0K | $425.0K | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| D&A / Revenue % | Infinity% | 3.5% | 93.4% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Change in NWC | $-58.0M | $-20.7M | $73.1M | $4.1K | $3.7K | $3.3K | $3.0K | $2.7K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -Infinity% | -206.9% | 16076.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-3.7M | $-27.4M | $-150.9M | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -635.4% | -451.6% | Infinity% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -Infinity% | -273.9% | -33174.8% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.892 | 0.795 | 0.709 | 0.632 | 0.564 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.87 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.5% |
| Total Debt | $2.8M |
| Market Cap | $54.4M |
| Total Capital | $57.2M |
| Debt Weighting | 4.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 95.1% |
| WACC | 12.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $InfinityB |
| Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| PV of Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $InfinityB |
| Net Debt | $-76.6M |
| Equity Value | $InfinityB |
| Shares Outstanding | 139.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $InfinityB |
| Current Share Price | $0 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +Infinity% |
Valuation Summary
$Infinity
Implied Price
$0.38
Current Price
+Infinity%
Upside/Downside
12.2%
WACC
APLT Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-0.01
-103.2%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.1x
P/S Ratio
$0.00
-99.5%
Peer Median: 1.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for APLT's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | APLT Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.3x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -3193.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | -Infinityx | 0.1x | 0.1x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 205.2x | 1.0x | 1.2x | 20731.2% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.1x | 0.0x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.9x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 305.8x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 205.2x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.2x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 53.6x |