Complete ADVM Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
ADVM DCF Analysis
ADVM (Adverum Biotechnologies, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0 | $3.6M | $1.0M | $900.0K | $810.0K | $729.0K | $656.1K | $590.5K |
| Revenue Growth % | - | Infinity% | -72.2% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $-157.1M | $-128.9M | $-139.2M | $45.0K | $40.5K | $36.5K | $32.8K | $29.5K |
| EBIT Margin % | 0.0% | -3581.7% | -13915.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-117.9M | $-96.7M | $-104.4M | $33.8K | $30.4K | $27.3K | $24.6K | $22.1K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -Infinity% | -2686.3% | -10436.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $11.8M | $808.0K | $388.0K | $27.0K | $24.3K | $21.9K | $19.7K | $17.7K |
| Capex / Revenue % | Infinity% | 22.4% | 38.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Depreciation | $6.5M | $5.6M | $3.7M | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| D&A / Revenue % | Infinity% | 156.8% | 365.3% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Change in NWC | $-137.5M | $-80.5M | $30.5M | $9.0K | $8.1K | $7.3K | $6.6K | $5.9K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -Infinity% | -2235.8% | 3054.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $14.3M | $-11.4M | $-131.6M | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -179.4% | -1056.8% | Infinity% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% |
| FCF / Revenue % | Infinity% | -316.1% | -13164.7% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.944 | 0.890 | 0.840 | 0.793 | 0.748 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.70 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.4% |
| Total Debt | $91.7M |
| Market Cap | $50.6M |
| Total Capital | $142.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 64.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 35.5% |
| WACC | 6.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $InfinityB |
| Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| PV of Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $InfinityB |
| Net Debt | $31.1M |
| Equity Value | $InfinityB |
| Shares Outstanding | 19.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $InfinityB |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +Infinity% |
Valuation Summary
$Infinity
Implied Price
$2.42
Current Price
+Infinity%
Upside/Downside
6.0%
WACC
ADVM Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$2.27
-6.2%
Peer Median: 13.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ADVM's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ADVM Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.4x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 14.0x | 13.2x | 6.8x | 6.6% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.4x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 190.2x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 13.2x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x |