Complete SCLX Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 1 different methodologies
SCLX DCF Analysis
SCLX (Scilex Holding Company) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $38.0M | $46.7M | $56.6M | $69.5M | $83.9M | $99.4M | $116.0M | $133.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 22.9% | 21.1% | 22.9% | 20.6% | 18.5% | 16.7% | 15.0% |
| EBIT | $-50.6M | $-105.4M | $-83.4M | $3.5M | $4.2M | $5.0M | $5.8M | $6.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | -133.1% | -225.6% | -147.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-38.0M | $-79.1M | $-62.5M | $2.6M | $3.1M | $3.7M | $4.3M | $5.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -99.8% | -169.2% | -110.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $2.1M | $330.0K | $0 | $868.8K | $995.2K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $4.0M | $4.1M | $4.0M | $6.1M | $7.4M | $8.8M | $10.2M | $11.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Change in NWC | $131.2M | $-188.4M | $-14.5M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 344.9% | -403.0% | -25.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-167.3M | $113.1M | $-44.0M | $7.9M | $9.5M | $11.4M | $13.3M | $15.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 167.6% | -138.9% | 117.9% | 21.3% | 19.1% | 17.3% | 15.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -439.8% | 242.0% | -77.8% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.752 | 0.700 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $7.3M | $8.3M | $9.2M | $10.0M | $10.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $7.3M | $15.6M | $24.8M | $34.8M | $45.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.14 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.3% |
| Total Debt | $38.0M |
| Market Cap | $44.0M |
| Total Capital | $81.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 46.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 53.7% |
| WACC | 7.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $15.4M |
| Terminal Value | $322.8M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $226.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $45.6M |
| Net Debt | $34.7M |
| Equity Value | $236.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 7.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $34 |
| Current Share Price | $6 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +438.8% |
Valuation Summary
$34.08
Implied Price
$6.33
Current Price
+438.8%
Upside/Downside
7.4%
WACC