Complete LYB Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
LYB DCF Analysis
LYB (LyondellBasell Industries N.V.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50.5B | $41.1B | $40.3B | $41.2B | $42.0B | $42.7B | $43.4B | $44.0B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -18.5% | -2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| EBIT | $5.1B | $3.1B | $1.8B | $3.0B | $3.1B | $3.2B | $3.3B | $3.4B |
| EBIT Margin % | 10.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% |
| Tax Rate % | 18.5% | 19.1% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 17.3% | 18.4% |
| NOPAT | $4.2B | $2.5B | $1.5B | $2.6B | $2.7B | $2.7B | $2.7B | $2.8B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 8.2% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Capex | $1.9B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $1.7B |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| Depreciation | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.5B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Change in NWC | $98.0M | $917.0M | $-441.0M | $-94.6M | $-77.2M | $-62.8M | $-51.0M | $-41.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.2% | 2.2% | -1.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $3.4B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $2.2B | $2.3B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.6B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -54.7% | 7.2% | 29.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 6.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.938 | 0.880 | 0.826 | 0.774 | 0.726 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $2.0B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $1.9B | $1.9B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $2.0B | $4.0B | $6.0B | $8.0B | $9.9B |
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.3% |
| Tax Rate | 13.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.34% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.84 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.0% |
| Total Debt | $12.9B |
| Market Cap | $18.7B |
| Total Capital | $31.6B |
| Debt Weighting | 40.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 59.1% |
| WACC | 6.6% |
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $2.6B |
| Terminal Value | $65.6B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $47.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $9.9B |
| Net Debt | $9.5B |
| Equity Value | $47.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 326.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $147 |
| Current Share Price | $58 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +152.7% |
LYB Dividend Discount Model
LYB dividend discount model based on historical dividend payments and projected dividend growth rates
Historical 5Y CAGR: -1.6%
Cost of equity (risk-free rate + equity risk premium)
| Period | Dividend per Share | YoY Growth | Growth Rate | Period Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025Q2 2024 - Q2 2025 | $4.02Current | $1.07 | -21.0% | TTM |
2024Q2 2023 - Q2 2024 | $5.09 | $0.27 | +5.6% | TTM Historical |
2023Q2 2022 - Q2 2023 | $4.82 | $4.96 | -50.7% | TTM Historical |
2022Q2 2021 - Q2 2022 | $9.78 | $5.50 | +128.5% | TTM Historical |
2021Q2 2020 - Q2 2021 | $4.28 | — | — | TTM Historical |
TTM Methodology
This analysis uses Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) windows for consistent 12-month comparisons. Each period represents dividends paid over a rolling 12-month window ending on the same calendar date, eliminating partial fiscal year distortions and providing accurate growth rate calculations.
LYB Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
| EPS (TTM) | $3.31 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $38.23 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
LYB Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 1.4 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 1.4 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $1.4B |
| Cost of Capital | 6.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $19.9B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $19.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.3B |
| EPV per Share | $61.08 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 59.5% |
| Debt Weight | 40.5% |
| WACC | 6.8% |