Complete AIHS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 1 different methodologies
AIHS DCF Analysis
AIHS (Senmiao Technology Limited) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2021 (Historical) | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Projected) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.9M | $8.1M | $6.8M | $7.0M | $7.2M | $7.4M | $7.5M | $7.7M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 64.5% | -15.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| EBIT | $-11.6M | $-6.1M | $-4.7M | $350.8K | $360.2K | $368.8K | $376.8K | $384.1K |
| EBIT Margin % | -235.3% | -75.9% | -69.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-8.7M | $-4.6M | $-3.5M | $263.1K | $270.1K | $276.6K | $282.6K | $288.1K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -176.5% | -57.0% | -52.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $3.4M | $1.2M | $671.7K | $715.4K | $697.8K | $678.8K | $658.8K | $638.0K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 68.5% | 14.6% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% |
| Depreciation | $2.1M | $2.0M | $1.5M | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.2M | $2.2M | $2.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 42.2% | 24.6% | 22.1% | 29.6% | 29.6% | 29.6% | 29.6% | 29.6% |
| Change in NWC | $5.3M | $236.2K | $-2.4M | $102.5K | $84.2K | $69.0K | $56.4K | $46.0K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 108.3% | 2.9% | -34.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-15.3M | $-4.0M | $-349.8K | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.8M | $1.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 73.7% | 91.3% | 535.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -311.1% | -49.8% | -5.1% | 21.7% | 22.5% | 23.2% | 23.9% | 24.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.928 | 0.861 | 0.799 | 0.742 | 0.689 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.4M | $2.8M | $4.2M | $5.5M | $6.8M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.5% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.80 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.9% |
| Total Debt | $718.6K |
| Market Cap | $9.6M |
| Total Capital | $10.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 7.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 93.0% |
| WACC | 7.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.9M |
| Terminal Value | $36.7M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $25.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $6.8M |
| Net Debt | $-73.7K |
| Equity Value | $32.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 8.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $4 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +299.1% |
Valuation Summary
$3.63
Implied Price
$0.91
Current Price
+299.1%
Upside/Downside
7.7%
WACC